According to the Mixture of Distributions Hypothesis (MDH), returns volatility and trading volume are driven by a common news arrival variable. Consequently, these two variables should be correlated. This paper extends, and to some extent, globalises the concept of a common information arrival...

Correct assessment of the risks associated with likely economic outcomes is vital for effective decision making. The objective of investment in the stock market is to obtain positive market returns. The risk, however, is the danger of suffering large negative market returns. A variety of...

The selection of ‘representative’ farms in farm level modelling where results are aggregated to the sector level is critically important if the effects of aggregation bias are to be reduced. The process of selecting representative farms normally involves the use of cluster analysis where the...

This paper evaluates the effects of different exchange rate scenarios on projections for agricultural incomes and prices in a small highly export dependent region, NI. The modelling system used in the analysis is designed to capture the complexities of the relationship between exchange rates and...

Economic research by and large is dominated by a ‘rationality’ paradigm. Economic decision making within this paradigm is viewed as a maximising procedure. In general the latter represents the decision-making as a choice amongst a well defined set of alternatives. In this paper we question...

This paper proposes a new concept of rural development in an uncertain world. The nature of risk and uncertainty is discussed and risk management is defined as a positive model of economic and social behaviour. Some relevant paradigms for rural development are briefly reviewed and evaluated...

Rural development was traditionally associated with agriculture. The policy shift towards integrated rural development reflects the complex linkages and interactions within the system of overall rural development. Putting too much emphasis on agriculture and ignoring its linkages to the rest of...

The standard Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach to investigating the underlying dynamics of economic variables assumes a constant co-integration space. This paper relaxes this assumption by implementing a regime switching VECM that allows for shifts in both the drift and the long-run...