This paper is concerned with the problems of posterior simulation and model choice for Poisson panel data models with multiple random effects. Efficient algorithms based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for sampling the posterior distribution are developed. A new parameterization of the...

This paper provides a unified simulation-based Bayesian and non-Bayesian analysis of correlated binary data using the multivariate probit model. The posterior distribution is simulated by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, and maximum likelihood estimates are obtained by a Markov chain Monte...

We consider a deterministically trending dynamic time series model in which multiple changes in level, trend and error variance are modeled explicitly and the number but not the timing of the changes are known. Estimation of the model is made possible by the use of the Gibbs sampler. The...

This paper is concerned with statistical inference in multinomial probit, multinomial-$t$ and multinomial logit models. New Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for fitting these models are introduced and compared with existing MCMC methods. The question of parameter identification in the...

Duration dependent Markov-switching VAR (DDMS-VAR) models are time series models with data generating process consisting in a mixture of two VAR processes, which switches according to a two-state Markov chain with transition probabilities depending on how long the process has been in a state. In...

We study the behavior of real exchange rates in a two­country dynamic equilibrium model. In this model, consumers can only consume domestic goods but can invest costlessly in capital stocks of both countries. Nevertheless, transporting goods between the two countries is costly and, hence, the...

This paper calculates a unit labor-cost based real effective exchange rate for China for the period 1987-2002. It examines carefully which data sources can be used given the known limitations of Chinese data and constructs to them together with internationally available unit labor cost...

The main objective of this paper is to study the relationship between external public debt and equilibrium real exchange rate in developing countries. Using a extension of Obstfeld & Rogoff (1995) model we show that debt overhang tend to appreciate real exchange rate in the long run (Krugman...

This paper examines the determinants of the real effective exchange rate (REER) in Brazil, from 1994 to 2003. Building on a standard theoretical model and based on the Johansen cointegration estimation, the main finding is that much of the long-run behavior of the REER can be explained by...

Real exchange rate misalignment measures deviations of actual real exchange rate from its long-run, or equilibrium, level. Policy makers and many researchers are interested in predicting and monitoring misalignment in the foreign exchange market, because, in many cases, it is closely related to...