This paper describes the Federal Reserve's analytical framework under Volcker and Greenspan, as it was constructed in the early 1980s, during a period of high inflation. It traces the modeling and policy implications of this framework. It discusses the Fed's actual track record and the state of...

The efficiency of speculative markets, as represented by Fama's 1970 fair game model, is tested on weekly price index data of six Asian stock markets - Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand - using Sherry's (1992) non-parametric methods. These scientific testing methods...

Liberalization of Singapore's financial sector causes its fund management industry to expand rapidly. As of December 1, 1998 there were 191 unit trusts to choose from. Eventually, Singapore, like the USA and Hong Kong, will have more unit trusts than stocks listed on its exchange. Many...

This paper identifies the Multifractal Models of Asset Return (MMARs) from the eight nodal term structure series of US Treasury rates as well as the Fed Funds rate and, after proper synthesis, simulates those MMARs. We show that there is an inverse persistence term structure in the sense that...

The recent rapid accumulation of anomalous empirical research results has made clear that the classical definition of financial risk based on asset classes only is ready for a epistemological change. Currently, the definition of financial risk suffers from three major deficiencies: (1) financial...

The financial rates of return from Latin American stock and currency markets are found to be non-normal, non-stationary, non-ergodic and long-term dependent, i.e., they have long memory. The degree of long- term dependence is measured by monofractal (global) Hurst exponents from wavelet...

In an earlier paper (Los, 1998a), the exact and complete return attribution framework of Singer and Karnosky (1995) was extended to include market risk measurements for n countries. Exploiting a selection matrix based on the cash accounting identities, the resulting degenerate portfolio choice...

A careful examination of interest rate time series from different U.S. Treasury maturities by Wavelet Multiresolution Analysis (MRA) suggests that the first differences of the term structure of interest rate series are periodic or, at least, cyclic, non-stationary, long-term dependent, in...

The distributional form of financial asset returns has important implications for the theoretical and empirical analyses in economics and finance. It is now a well-established fact that financial return distributions are empirically nonstationary, both in the weak and the strong sense. One first...

Our methodology of 'complete identification,' using simple algebraic geometry, throws new light on the continued commitment of Galton's Error in finance and the resulting misinformation of investors. Mutual funds conventionally advertise their relative systematic market risk, or 'betas,' to...