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Using a recently introduced nonparametric test, I investigate two important and distinct asymmetries in cross-country quarterly macroeconomic time series. Asymmetries are suggested by many theories (old and new), and those discovered aid in the selection of the appropriate nonlinear time series...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005412800
In many real phenomena the behaviour of a certain variable, subjected to different regimes, depends on the state of other variables or the same variable observed in other subjects, so the knowledge of the state of the latter could be important to forecast the state of the former. In this paper a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005062565
This paper argues that the linear price-dividend relationship as predicted in the Gordon model breaks down in regimes of high inflation and deflation. Using data for the US and the UK over the period from 1871 to 2002, nonlinear estimates support the prediction of the model.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005119140
. Time series models with GARCH errors are also considered. Based on formal econometrics tests, this study shows that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076958
original empirical time series, but also with the simulated results from the corresponding Brownian Motion and GARCH processes … wavelet scalograms, we demonstrate that the MMAR outperforms both the GBM and GARCH(1,1) in time-frequency comparisons, in … attributes of the empirical distributions, while the simulated GBM and GARCH(1,1) processes cannot preserve the thick-tails, high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005077018
In this paper we looked at the changes in correlations between the Russian an U.S. equity market returns from September 1995 to October 2003. The correlations were estimated using the “Dynamic Conditional Correlation Model.” We further investigated the economic factors that cause the changes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125510
December 1993. Second, using various GARCH models to account for heteroskedasticity show that Gaussian models can be misleading …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125545
security returns for stochastic beta and GARCH effects, may very well cause researchers to draw inappropriate conclusions. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005126104
diagnostic tool to determine the adequacy of the GARCH model in describing the returns generating process of Malaysia’s stock …, while GARCH model is commonly applied to financial time series, this model cannot provide an adequate characterization for … the presence of episodic non- stationarity in the data, which could not be captured by any kind of ARCH or GARCH model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005134637
This paper examines the forecasting performance of GARCH’s models used with agricultural commodities data. We compare … containing a genuine stock index also. The implied goal is to find out if the GARCH models are more fitted for stock indices than …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005134650