We consider how judgment and statistical methods should be integrated for time-series forecasting. Our review of … judgment; combining forecasts; revising extrapolations; rule-based forecasting; and econometric forecasting. This literature … the future as well as for the past, we recommend rule- based forecasting or econometric methods. …

2002. We test for financial contagion from the Argentine crisis and the impact of factors including IMF intervention and … political uncertainty in raising the probability of crisis. The empirical investigation employs a Markov switching model with …

In this paper we test for contagion within the East Asian region, contagion being defined as a significant increase in … omitted variable respectively. The null of interdependence against the alternative of contagion is then tested as an over … corresponding to the beginning of the contagion period, and finally we impose more plausible restrictions in order to identify the …

. Time series models with GARCH errors are also considered. Based on formal econometrics tests, this study shows that the …

and public), and global indicators—that are likely to affect the probability of financial crises. The significance of the …

and public), and global indicators—that are likely to affect the probability of financial crises. The significance of the …

–range correlations. Volatility values are log–stable distributed. We discuss the implications of these results for stochastic volatility …

waiting-time probability density are presented. Finally, a general scaling form is given, based on the solution of the … fractional diffusion equation. …