We present a new method, inspired by the bootstrap, whose goal it is to determine the quality and reliability of a neural network predictor. Our method leads to more robust forecasting along with a large amount of statistical information on forecast performance that we exploit. We exhibit the...

There is reliable evidence that simple rules used by traders have some predictive value over the future movement of foreign exchange prices. This paper will review some of this evidence and discuss the economic magnitude of this predictability. The profitability of these trading rules will then...

Both academic and applied researchers studying financial markets and other economic series have become interested in the topic of chaotic dynamics. The possibility of chaos in financial markets opens important questions for both economic theorists as well as financial market participants. This...

Agent-based computational economics (ACE) is the computational study of economies modelled as evolving decentralized systems of autonomous interacting agents. A key focus of ACE research is understanding how global regularities arise from the bottom up, through the repeated local interactions of...

Artificial life (alife) is the bottom-up study of basic phenomena commonly associated with living agents, such as self- replication, evolution, adaptation, self-organization, exploitation, competition, cooperation, and social network formation. Alife complements the traditional biological and...

Agent-based computational economics (ACE) is the computational study of economies modeled as evolving systems of autonomous interacting agents. Starting from initial conditions, specified by the modeler, the computational economy evolves over time as its constituent agents repeatedly interact...

Agent-based computational economics (ACE)is the computational study of economies modelled as evolving systems of autonomous interacting agents. This short paper is a brief guide to recent ACE research. For more information, visit the ACE Web site at http://www.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/ace.htm....

It is now widely believed that government intervention is essential to ensure Pareto efficiency in the standard overlapping generations economy with nonaltruistic agents. This paper argues that the normal profit-seeking activities of {\it private intermediaries\/}---missing from the standard...

This study presents, motivates, and illustrates the use of a computational laboratory for the investigation of evolutionary trade network formation among strategically interacting buyers, sellers, and dealers. The computational laboratory, referred to as the Trade Network Game Laboratory (TNG...

This study investigates the performance of Gale-Shapley matching in an evolutionary market context. Computational experimental findings are reported for an evolutionary match-and-play trade network game in which resource-constrained traders repeatedly choose and refuse trade partners in...