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Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations

Paloviita, Maritta - EconWPA - 2004

the euro area: the older expectations-augmented Phillips curve and the new Keynesian Phillips curve. The main focus is on … the euro area as a whole, although potential heterogeneity of inflation dynamics is also examined across eleven EMU … countries. According to the results, inflation expectations are central to the inflation process in all euro area countries. The …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005126170

Inflation Premium and Oil Price Volatility

Castillo, Paul; Montoro, Carlos; Tuesta, Vicente - EconWPA - 2005

In this paper we establish a link between the volatility of oil price shocks and a positive expected value of inflation in equilibrium (inflation premium). In doing so, we implement the perturbation method to solve up to second order a benchmark New Keynesian model with oil price shocks. In...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005126223

The role of expectations in the inflation process in the euro area

Paloviita, Maritta; Virén, Matti - EconWPA - 2005

This paper analyses the role of inflation expectations in the euro area. On one hand, the question is how inflation … an analysis of the dynamic interrelationship between these variables. This model is estimated on aggregate euro area data …, pooled euro area country data and individual country data for the period 1979–2003. The empirical results give strong support …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005126316

How Does Global Disinflation Drag Inflation in Small Open Economies?

Vega, Marco; Winkelried, Diego - EconWPA - 2004

This paper shows the way how persistent world inflation shocks hitting a small open economy can re-weight the importance of domestic and foreign factors in the determination of prices. In this sense, we study why the recently observed global disinflation environment may imply a weakening of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005412737

Expectations, Learning and Macroeconomic Persistence

Milani, Fabio - EconWPA - 2005

This paper presents an estimated model with learning and provides evidence that learning can improve the fit of popular monetary DSGE models and endogenously generate realistic levels of persistence. The paper starts with an agnostic view, developing a model that nests learning and some of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561139

micro Foundatiosn of Macro Economics: An Empirical Evidence of Phillips Curve

Azid, Toseef - EconWPA - 2004

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561164

POLICY ILLUSION, MACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY AND THE UNRECORDED ECONOMY

Feige, Edgar L.; McGee, Robert T. - EconWPA - 2005

During the decade of the 1970’s the US economy unexpectedly suffered from “stagflation” namely, high unemployment, slowed economic growth and high rates of inflation. During the 1980’s the major macroeconomic problem became high interest rates and massive government deficits....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561172

EMU, EURO and EU-Membership: An Evaluation from the Turkish Macroeconomic Perspective

Kibritcioglu, Aykut - EconWPA - 2003

indicators (1973-1997)? (2) To what extent will the introduction of the euro affect the balance-of-payments accounts and foreign …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076843

The impact on the U.S. Dollar of the conflict between the American locomotive’s model and the emerging economies’ autopoietic growth.

Viviani, Carlo; Savona, Paolo - EconWPA - 2005

The purpose of this paper is to put the future of the US dollar into a logical framework which comprises the global development mechanism. Two models of growth collide: the US «locomotive», based on the international use of the dollar, and which requires exogenous pushes coming permanently...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124951

Would Fast Sailing Towards the Euro Be Smooth?: What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tell Us About Acceding Economies

Smidkova, Katerina; Bulir, Ales - EconWPA - 2004

to the euro adoption than what can be expected from the acceding countries in the forthcoming years. If acceding … countries sail too fast towards the euro, their sailing may not be as smooth as the one of frontrunners. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125008