Showing 1 - 10 of 66
This paper gives an overview of some issues related to market aluation, focusing on the developments on the New York equity markets. The 42.4 p.c. fall in the S&P 500 price index between 24 March 2000 - when it reached its all-time high - and 31 December 2002 is situated in a very long term...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125064
This study examines the forecastability of ASEAN-5 stock market returns using linear and non-linear time series models. Time series models with GARCH errors are also considered. Based on formal econometrics tests, this study shows that the behaviour of these returns do not follow random walk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076958
The aim of this paper is to develop and apply Neural Network (NN) models in order to forecast regional employment patterns in Germany. NNs are statistical tools based on learning algorithms with a distribution over a large amount of quantitative data. NNs are increasingly deployed in the social...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005134566
This paper examines the forecasting performance of GARCH’s models used with agricultural commodities data. We compare … different possible sources of forecasting improvement, using various statistical distributions and models. We have chosen to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005134650
ratio when forecasting long-run returns. The empirical results for the S&P 500 show the superiority of our approach to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005134659
Many authors have documented that it is challenging to explain exchange rate fluctuations with macroeconomic fundamentals: a random walk forecasts future exchange rates better than existing macroeconomic models. This paper applies newly developed tests for nested model that are robust to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005062396
In order to explore the predictability of the Manhattan office market, a three-stage simultaneous equation model is applied in this paper. The first stage incorporates the office space market in terms of occupied space and absorption of new space. The second stage captures the adjustment of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005062516
Rosenstone develops a causal model to forecast political voting. The model seems reasonable; for example, it includes information about party, key issues, the economy, war, incumbency, region, and trends over time. Standard econometric methods are then used to determine how much weight should be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005062661
Recently, the continuous double auction, i.e. the trading mechanism used in the majority of the financial markets, is the subject of an extensive study. In the present paper, a model of the continuous double auction with the completely random flow of the limit orders is studied. The main result...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005407942
This paper presents theoretical models and their empirical results for the return and variance dynamics of German stocks. A factor structure is used in order to allow for a parsimonious modeling of the first two moments of returns. Dynamic factor models with GARCH dynamics (GARCH(1,1)-M,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005407963