The study examines the reasons for financial crises in 31 emerging market countries during 1980-2001. It estimates a probit model using 23 macroeconomic and financial sector variables. Traditional variables such as unemployment and inflation, as well as several indicators of indebtedness such as...

Este documento analiza el impacto de un shock en la tasa de interés externa en la economía chilena. Con este fin, se estima un modelo empírico de Vectores Autoregresivos y adicionalmente se desarrolla un modelo estocástico de equilibrio general calibrado y parametrizado para la economía...

This paper develops and estimates an unobserved components model for purposes of monetary policy analysis and inflation targeting in a small open economy. Cyclical components are modeled as a multivariate linear rational expectations model of the monetary transmission mechanism, while trend...

An important factor that helps distinquish between alternative balance of payments theories is the assumed causal relationship between the domestic credit and reserve components of a country's monetary base. This paper reports test results of this causal relationship in Austrailia, Belgium,...

Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system (EWS) for six countries in Asia in which indicators do work. Our binary choice model, which has been estimated for the period 1970:01–2001.12, has the following features. We...

Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system for six countries in Asia, in which indicators do work.We distinguish three types of financial crises, currency crises, banking crises and debt crises, and extract four groups of...

Since the start of the 1990s, several countries have abandoned fixed- but-adjustable exchange rate regimes. The tendency towards floating exchange rate regimes, or alternatively monetary unions, has given rise to a debate on the disappearance of pure currency crises, and the literature has...

Engel and West (2004a) provide an explanation to reconcile the random walk behavior of exchange rate and linear present value asset pricing models. In this paper, we study the long horizon property of exchange rate under Engel-West explanation. It is found that the long horizon data can not...

This paper examines a two-country new open economy macroeconomics model with price stickiness a la Taylor, where exporters' choice of invoicing currency is endogenous. Besides generating incomplete pass-through, the model yields four main results. First, firms' invoicing strategy is generally...

This paper reviews the theoretical functions, history, and policy problems raised by the international capital market. The goal is to offer a perspective on both the considerable advantages the market offers and on the genuine hazards it poses, as well as on the avenues through which it...