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Decomposing the co-movement of the business cycle: a time- frequency analysis of growth cycles in the eurozone
Crowley, Patrick; Lee, Jim - EconWPA - 2005
This article analyses the frequency components of European business cycles using real GDP by employing multiresolution decomposition (MRD) with the use of maximal overlap discrete wavelet transforms (MODWT). Static wavelet variance and correlation analysis is performed, and phasing is studied...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076732
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Indicators of financial crises do work! An early-warning system for six Asian countries
Lestano; Jacobs, Jan; Kuper, Gerard H. - EconWPA - 2004
Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system for six countries in Asia, in which indicators do work.We distinguish three types of financial crises, currency crises, banking crises and debt crises, and extract four groups of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005408159
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Indicators of financial crises do work! An early-warning system for six Asian countries
Lestano; Jacobs, Jan; Kuper, Gerard H. - EconWPA - 2004
Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system for six countries in Asia, in which indicators do work.We distinguish three types of financial crises, currency crises, banking crises and debt crises, and extract four groups of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005119472
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No More Rocking Horses: Trading Business-Cycle Depth for Duration Using an Economy-Specific Characteristic.
Mikhail, Ossama - EconWPA - 2004
Regarding the trade-off between the depth and the duration of recessions, there exists a mounting empirical evidence of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076708
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Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery
Cerra, Valerie; Saxena, Sweta C. - EconWPA - 2005
Using panel data for a large number of countries, we find that economic contractions are not followed by offsetting fast recoveries. Trend output lost is not regained, on average. Wars, crises, and other negative shocks lead to absolute divergence and lower long-run growth, whereas we find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005126155
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A Crise Financeira Russa
Pinto, Bruno José Marques; Vilela, Thais Machado de Matos - EconWPA - 2005
Fundamental sources of the Russian financial crisis in 1998 are discussed. Focus is made on the time horizon of judgements concerning sustainability of the economic policy. It is argued that the macroeconomic policy pursued by the monetary authorities was not robust in a medium run, but, in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005412647
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Comparison between Asian, Russian and Turkish financial crises
Lukkarila, Johanna - EconWPA - 2004
Since the start of the 1990s, several countries have abandoned fixed- but-adjustable exchange rate regimes. The tendency towards floating exchange rate regimes, or alternatively monetary unions, has given rise to a debate on the disappearance of pure currency crises, and the literature has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556609
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Do probit models help in forecasting turning points of German business cycles?
Fritsche, Ulrich - EconWPA - 2001
indicator series to forecast recessions by using a probit approach as proposed by Estrella/Mishkin (1997). The dating procedure … in the probit model the fact that the economy is already in a state of recession must be controlled for. The results of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076772
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Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain
Bellone, Benoit - EconWPA - 2004
using monthly data. It exhibits ten US time series, which offer reliable information to detect recessions in real time. It … also assesses the performances of different and complementary “recession models” based on Markovian processes : the “Pooled … reading of the business cycle through, a favored recession model and concludes about leading and “real time detection …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005119146
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Growth Cycles in Centrally Planned Economies: An Empirical Test
Kyn, Oldrich; Slama, Jiri; Schrettl, Wolfram - EconWPA - 2005
recessions in economic growth in early 50’ and 60’s. The second theory formulated by Josef Goldman blames the cyclical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561210