Showing 1 - 10 of 38
In this paper we consider the problem of sequential detecting change points in economic time series. We compare the performances of three well known procedures, Shiryayev-Roberts, CUSUM and EWMA, in the problem of early detection of the US business cycle turning points using leading indicators...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005407974
Monetary policy has been usually analyzed in the context of small macroeconomic models where central banks are allowed to exploit a limited amount of information. Under these frameworks, researchers typically derive the optimality of aggressive monetary rules, contrasting with the observed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005412848
The introduction of a common monetary policy in eleven European countries increased the need for leading indicators for that area. A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076700
Currency and financial crises are determinants of growth and development, mainly in developing countries subject to shocks, contagion and volatility. A relevant issue when trying to do the implementation of development policies is to anticipate or forecast the occurrence of currency crises that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125867
The paper deals with the application of Minimum Weighted Residual Methods (MWR) in intertemporal optimizing models of endogenous economic growth. In the 1st part of the paper the basics of the MWR method are described. Attention is mainly concentrated on one special class of MWR methods: the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005407729
Wavelet analysis, although used extensively in disciplines such as signal processing, engineering, medical sciences, physics and astronomy, has not yet fully entered the economics discipline. In this discussion paper, wavelet analysis is introduced in an intuitive manner, and the existing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005407945
The paper investigates the relationship between relative price movements and changes in the aggregate price level using monthly data on Finland’s Consumer Price Index and its components from the period covering the past eight and a half years. This was a period of very low inflation. The rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005412660
Lucas (2004) asserts that 'Of the tendencies that are harmful to sound economics, the most seductive, and in my opinion, the most poisonous, is to focus on questions of distribution...The potential for improving the lives of poor people by finding different ways of distributing current...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005412681
Monetary models of the business cycle often neglect the importance of investment and the capital stock in the monetary transmission mechanism. Most of the recent literature assumes either investment adjustment costs or ignores capital altogether. This paper re-takes the argument put forward by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005412707
Social learning models of investment provide an interesting alternative explanation for sudden changes in investment behaviour. Caplin and Leahy (1994) develop a model of social learning in which agents learn about the true state of demand from the investment suspension decisions of other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005412756