If each member of a group assigns a certain probability to a hypothesis, what probability should the collective as a whole assign? More generally, how should individual probability functions be merged into a single collective one? I investigate this question in case that the individual...

This paper describes a parametric family of utility functions for decision analysis. The parameterization is obtained by embedding the HARA class in a four-parameter representation for the risk aversion function. The resulting utility functions have only four shapes: concave, convex, S-shaped,...

Ideal economics? A “non-ideal” economics approach has been proposed, which considers the possibility of arrangement infringements. It gives promises for both solving fundamental problems of economic theory and creation of new directions and fields of research. The approach application in...

This paper develops a utility model for evaluating lotteries. In estimating utility, risk averse people use an asymmetric loss function. Expected utility is seen as a special case that is a good approximation in some cases. The model resolves several paradoxes and makes easily falsifiable...

This paper develops a utility model for evaluating lotteries. In estimating utility, risk averse people use an asymmetric loss function. Expected utility is seen as a special case that is a good approximation of the general case in some cases. The model resolves several paradoxes and makes...

Arrangements (agreements, contracts, regulations, bargains, etc.) are widespread economic events and are the fundamental concept of the economic theory. Infringements (breaches, modifications, deviations, changes, etc.) of arrangements are common and have a significant importance for the...

Die vorliegende Arbeit stellt einen Beitrag zur Bewertung von Mitarbeiterrisiken in Unternehmen dar. Es werden Ursachen determiniert, die einen Mitarbeiterausfall zur Folge haben. Diese werden auf ihre Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit sowie möglicher Schäden hin untersucht. Darauf aufbauend wird...

This paper presents rigorous and direct tests of two assumptions relating to limited commitment and asymmetric information that current underpin current models of risk pooling. A specially designed economic experiment involving 678 subjects across 23 Zimbabwean villages is used to solve the...

In this paper the option value of waiting under scientific uncertainty will be derived using the difference between the geometric Brownian motion and the mean reverting process by applying contingent claim analysis. The results will be compared with those generated by either using a geometric...

Scientists and policymakers are increasingly aware that wildfire management efforts should be broadened beyond the century-long emphasis on suppression to include more effective efforts at fuel management. Because wildfire risks change over time as vegetation matures, fuel management can be...