If each member of a group assigns a certain probability to a hypothesis, what probability should the collective as a whole assign? More generally, how should individual probability functions be merged into a single collective one? I investigate this question in case that the individual...

Ideal economics? A “non-ideal” economics approach has been proposed, which considers the possibility of arrangement infringements. It gives promises for both solving fundamental problems of economic theory and creation of new directions and fields of research. The approach application in...

This paper describes a parametric family of utility functions for decision analysis. The parameterization is obtained by embedding the HARA class in a four-parameter representation for the risk aversion function. The resulting utility functions have only four shapes: concave, convex, S-shaped,...

This paper develops a utility model for evaluating lotteries. In estimating utility, risk averse people use an asymmetric loss function. Expected utility is seen as a special case that is a good approximation in some cases. The model resolves several paradoxes and makes easily falsifiable...

This paper develops a utility model for evaluating lotteries. In estimating utility, risk averse people use an asymmetric loss function. Expected utility is seen as a special case that is a good approximation of the general case in some cases. The model resolves several paradoxes and makes...

Attending college seems to be a profitable and affordable investment in the US. Nevertheless, a number of academically talented young people still hesitate to attend college. This puzzle motivates this paper to test for whether college education is a risky investment. To measure the riskiness of...

Within the expected-utility framework, the only explanation for risk aversion is that the utility function for wealth is concave: A person has lower marginal utility for additional wealth when she is wealthy than when she is poor. This paper provides a theorem showing that expected-utility...

This paper provides a general framework for pricing of real options in continuous time for wide classes of payoff streams that are functions of Levy processes. As applications, we calculate the option values of multi-stage investment/disinvestment problems (sequences of embedded options, which...

This paper explores the implications of investors’ everyday mild feelings for aggregate asset returns. To this end, it introduces a novel class of state dependent preferences - happiness maintenance preferences - into the standard Mehra and Prescott (1985) economy by allowing investors’...

Schumpeter maintained that oscillations of macroeconomic variables are only the "secondary wave" of business cycles, a reflex of more fundamental "primary waves" at the microeconomic level caused by the innovative activity of entrepreneurs. Uniting Schumpeter's concern for innovation with...