The structural vector autoregression (SVAR) has become a central tool for research in empirical macroeconomics. Because the vast majority of these models are exactly identified, researchers have traditionally relied upon the informal use of prior information to compare alternative...

This paper is concerned with the problems of posterior simulation and model choice for Poisson panel data models with multiple random effects. Efficient algorithms based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for sampling the posterior distribution are developed. A new parameterization of the...

This paper identifies the Multifractal Models of Asset Return (MMARs) from the eight nodal term structure series of US Treasury rates as well as the Fed Funds rate and, after proper synthesis, simulates those MMARs. We show that there is an inverse persistence term structure in the sense that...

This note derives new expressions for the moments of the average of values taken by Wiener paths at an arbitrary number, N, of discrete times. The expressions are closed summations, which entail only the N-th powers of, and the successive differences between, the moments of the lognormal finite...

Distributions for returns are used to compute the capital charge for portfolios in investment banks. The mainstream definition of returns is based on closing prices and neglects the important effects of intraday trading activity on the losses . In this paper we introduce ''minimal returns'', a...

A simple transform of a standard uniform variate is given for simulation of the maximum attained by a Wiener process with drift, conditioned upon the level attained by the process over an arbitrary time interval. The transform arises directly from inversion of the joint distribution function of...

A user friendly approach to modeling the risk process is presented. It utilizes the insurance library of the XploRe computing environment which is accompanied by on-line, hyperlinked and freely downloadable from the web manuals and e-books. The empirical analysis for Danish fire losses for the...

Roy’s safety-first rule is used to provide measures popular with farmers of short and long term business risk associated with various no-till transition strategies over an investment horizon. The short run rule provided more sensitivity to inter-year financial risk than other commonly used...

This paper deals with the finite sample performance of a set of unit root tests for cross correlated panels. As is well known, univariate tests are not powerful to reject the null of a unit root for the usual economic variables while panel tests, by exploiting the large number of cross-section...

We propose and empirically study a pricing model for convertible bonds based on Monte Carlo simulation. The method uses parametric representations of the early exercise decisions and consists of two stages. Pricing convertible bonds with the proposed Monte Carlo approach allows us to better...