Showing 1 - 10 of 299
In this paper, we develop a parametric test procedure for multiple horizon "Granger" causality and apply the procedure to the well established problem of determining causal patterns in aggregate monthly U.S. money and output. As opposed to most papers in the parametric causality literature, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005119144
This paper investigates the dynamics of output, employment and prices in an economy with costs of adjusting labor and prices. In an economy with non convex adjustments costs, firms do not adjust labor and prices continuously to accommodate every shift in demand. Rather, firms adjust employment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005412577
Much research on the dynamics of the aggregate economy concerns the adjustment policy of the microeconomic units. This paper investigates the optimal adjustment policy when there are seasonal fluctuations and fixed adjustment costs. The optimal policy in this case can be described in terms of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005412603
This paper documents a new stylized fact of the U.S. greater macroeconomic stability of the last two decades or so. Using 131 monthly time series, three popular statistical methods and the forecasts of the Federal Reserve's Green book and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we show that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076800
This paper models an inflation forecast density framework that closely resembles actual policy makers behaviour regarding the determination of the modal point, the uncertainty and asymmetry in the inflation forecasts. The framework combines policy makers prior information about these parameters...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556367
Credit risk models like Moody’s KMV are now well established in the market and give bond managers reliable estimates of default probabilities for individual firms. Until now it has been hard to relate those probabilities to the actual credit spreads observed on the market for corporate bonds....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005077017
The current research emphasis on institutions as key determinants of economic performance, rather than on resources and resource productivity, has uncovered important questions for further research. For example, if institutions are central to economic performance, then what explains observed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125631
Institutions either promote or constrain economic performance, but which parts of institutions advance or restrict performance, and why do economies sharing similar institutions sometimes perform differently? This paper is a modest attempt at addressing a small part of these questions. It...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125690
Inflation is a far from homogeneous phenomenon, but this fact is ignored in most work on consumer price inflation. Using a novel methodology grounded in theory, the ten sub-components of the consumer price index (excluding mortgage interest rates, or CPIX) for South Africa are modeled separately...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005062419
he purpose of this article is to analyse the dynamic trend of spatial dependence, which is not only contemporary but time-lagged in many socio-economic phenomena. Firstly, we show some of the commonly used exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) techniques and we propose other new ones, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005062559