In January 2003, the Government asked the Commission to undertake a study into the Mutual Recognition Agreement (MRA) and Trans-Tasm an Mutual Recognition Arrangement (TTMRA).

This paper investigates the main sources of instability in Brazil during the currency and financial distress episode of 2002. We test for financial contagion from the Argentine crisis and the impact of factors including IMF intervention and political uncertainty in raising the probability of...

This paper proposes a framework for comovements of asset prices with seemingly unrelated fundamentals, as an outcome of optimal portfolio strategies by fund managers. In emerging markets, dedicated managers outperforming a benchmark index and global managers maximizing absolute returns lead to...

Emerging markets are often exposed to sudden stops of capital inflows. What are the effects of monetary policy in such an environment? To answer this question, the paper proposes a model with the typical elements of an emerging market economy. Credit frictions generate balance sheet effects,...

Objectives: The objectives of this empirical study are: firstly, to modify and extend the 'signals approach', developed by Kaminsky/Lizondo/Reinhart (1997) as an early warning system for currency crises, secondly, to apply it to transition economies in Central and Eastern Europe, and, thirdly,...

Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system for six countries in Asia, in which indicators do work.We distinguish three types of financial crises, currency crises, banking crises and debt crises, and extract four groups of...

In this paper we test for contagion within the East Asian region, contagion being defined as a significant increase in the degree of co- movement between stock returns in different countries. For this purpose we use a parameter stability test and, following Rigobon (2004), we control for three...

The three Baltic countries have been able to combine, Estonia since 1992 and Latvia and Lithuania since 1994, (1) a fixed exchange rate, (2) liberalisation of the capital account before having a well-functioning and fully supervised financial system, and (3) very large current account deficits....

Financial markets are to a very large extent influenced by the advent of information. Such disclosures, however, do not only contain information about fundamentals underlying the markets, but they also serve as a focal point for the beliefs of market participants. This dual role of information...

This paper discusses the role of the credit rating agencies during the recent financial crises. In particular, it examines whether the agencies can add to the dynamics of emerging market crises. Academics and investors often argue that sovereign credit ratings are responsible for pronounced...