This paper is intended to give some alternative positive suggestion on how to cope with the must of the cutting off the oil subsidy domestically. The problem that faced by the government is that the compensation fund will hardly enjoyed by the poor, and moreover it is hard to watch out the whole...

This paper proposes to model the error term in smooth transition autoregressive target zone model as Gaussian with stochastic volatility (STARTZ-SV) or as Student-t with GARCH volatility (STARTZ-TGARCH). Using the dynamics of Norwegian krone exchange rate index, we show that both models produce...

This paper constructs long-term forecasts of energy prices using a reduced form model of shifting trend developed by Pindyck (1999). A Gibbs sampling algorithm is developed to estimate models with a shifting trend line which are used to construct 10-period-ahead and 15-period ahead forecasts. An...