This study addresses the question of whether exchange rate changes have any significant and direct impact on trade balance. By examining the trade balances between ASEAN-5 countries and Japan for the sample period from 1986 to 1999, this study found that the role of exchange rate changes in...

This papers finds evidence of fractional integration for a number of monthly ex post real interest rate series using the GPH semiparametric estimator on data from fourteen European countries and the US. However, we pose empirical questions on certain time series requirements that emerge from...

This paper is intended to give some alternative positive suggestion on how to cope with the must of the cutting off the oil subsidy domestically. The problem that faced by the government is that the compensation fund will hardly enjoyed by the poor, and moreover it is hard to watch out the whole...

This paper proposes to model the error term in smooth transition autoregressive target zone model as Gaussian with stochastic volatility (STARTZ-SV) or as Student-t with GARCH volatility (STARTZ-TGARCH). Using the dynamics of Norwegian krone exchange rate index, we show that both models produce...

This paper constructs long-term forecasts of energy prices using a reduced form model of shifting trend developed by Pindyck (1999). A Gibbs sampling algorithm is developed to estimate models with a shifting trend line which are used to construct 10-period-ahead and 15-period ahead forecasts. An...

For about twenty years, Deidre McCloskey has campaigned to convince the economics profession that it is hopelessly confused about statistical significance. She argues that many practices associated with significance testing are bad science and that most economists routinely employ these bad...

In this paper we develop a regression and a kernel density based model for finding fixed points and attractors of dynamical systems to explore attractors of structural change for NICs. The results show that countries consume longer time in some structures than the others. This can be interpreted...

Why do statisticians (econometricians, economists, financial analysts, etc.) continue to incompletely identify the algebraic/geometric structure of the multi-variate data series they profess to analyze, and instead continue to publish the results of incomplete, prejudiced and biased...

In this paper we develop a regression and a kernel density based model for finding fixed points and attractors of dynamical systems to explore attractors of structural change for NICs. The results show that countries consume longer time in some structures than the others. This can be interpreted...