Previous research has shown that seasonal factors provide one of the most important ways to improve forecast accuracy …. For example, in forecasts over an 18-month horizon for 68 monthly economic series from the M-Competition, Makridakis et al …

accuracy with which the distribution is calculated will rely on this number of replications. In this work, a relationship … between the number of replications and the accuracy of the estimate is obtained, so that if it is wanted to get a prefixed … value for the accuracy it is possible to determine which will be the minimum number of replications necessary for it. …

In this paper we study the relationship between the number of replications and the accuracy of the estimated quantiles …

made in eight conflict situations. These were difficult forecasting problems; the 32% accuracy of the unaided experts was … only slightly better than chance. In contrast, 46% of structured analogies forecasts were accurate. Among experts who were … independently able to think of two or more analogies and who had direct experience with their closest analogy, 60% of forecasts were …

statistic is indifferent to the scale on which the data are measured. The evaluation of the ex-post forecasts suggests that NN … ex-post forecasts have been carried out by means of a non-parametric test: viz. the Friedman statistic. The Friedman … reliability of its forecasts. …