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The Travails of Current Macroeconomic and Exchange Rate Management in China: The Complications of Switching to a New Growth Engine

Woo, Wing Thye - EconWPA - 2003

. The monopoly state banks intermediate the large volume of savings not only inefficiently but also inadequately. The latter … disaster in the long run because they would follow an increasingly rent-seeking path that is wasteful as in Japan (e … deflation phenomenon because a chronic trade surplus means that national savings is larger than domestic investments, the result …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005062405

Financial Liberalization and Business Cycles: The Experience of Future EU Member States in the Baltics and Central Eastern Europe

Souza, Lucio Vinhas de - EconWPA - 2004

This paper extends the work of Kaminsky and Schmukler (2003) to the Baltic and Central Eastern European future Member States of the European Union, to test if the same short-run increase in cyclical volatility arising from financial integration is observed in this specific sample of “emerging...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005062709

Anticipations, External Crises and Growth Cycles in Emerging Market Countries

Melecky, Martin - EconWPA - 2005

This paper attempts to carry out a study of relative importance of anticipated and unanticipated external crises for the dynamics of economic growth. The estimations are carried out within a two equation system capturing the possibility of a common shock to external crises and growth. The effect...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556633

Argentina: Trying to Make Sense of the Financial Tango

Buchs, Thierry - EconWPA - 2005

The paper discusses and revisits some of the most popular stories behind the 2001 financial crisis in Argentina, i.e. the prolonged overvaluation of the peso owing to the Currency Board arrangement, the lack of fiscal adjustment, and the negative external environment which triggered a “sudden...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076729

External Debt Sustainability: Theory and Empirical Evidence

Arnone, Marco; Bandiera, Luca; Presbitero, Andrea - EconWPA - 2005

This paper is a review of the different approaches on external debt sustainability. The Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) Initiative was launched to assure a permanent exit from debt dependence. However, the IMF-World Bank program is not without faults, in particular for what concerns debt...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556649

The Brazilian Currency Turmoil of 2002: A Nonlinear Analysis

Goretti, Manuela - EconWPA - 2005

This paper investigates the main sources of instability in Brazil during the currency and financial distress episode of 2002. We test for financial contagion from the Argentine crisis and the impact of factors including IMF intervention and political uncertainty in raising the probability of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125532

Sovereign Risk and Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy

Hamann, Franz - EconWPA - 2002

numerically to explore the determinants of the savings and investment decisions in an economy that can optimally choose to default …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005408167

Parameterizing Currency Risk in the EMS: The Irish Pound and Spanish Peseta against the German Mark

McNelis, Paul D.; Lim, G.C. - EconWPA - 1998

This paper compares alternative estimates of systemic time-varying excess returns for the Irish pound and the Spanish peseta, against the German mark, since 1985. We make use of progressively more complex models, going from the GARCH in Mean specification, to the International Capital Asset...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005119436

Investment-Saving Comovement and Capital Mobility: Evidence from Century Long U.S. Time Series

Levy, Daniel - EconWPA - 2005

This paper makes three contributions: First, I construct annual time series of gross domestic investment and national saving in the U.S. for the 1897–1949 period using historical component series. I compare the qualitative and quantitative properties of the newly constructed series with the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005408170

Nonparametric Efficiency Testing of Asian Stock Markets Using Weekly Data

LOS, CORNELIS A. - EconWPA - 2004

The efficiency of speculative markets, as represented by Fama's 1970 fair game model, is tested on weekly price index data of six Asian stock markets - Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand - using Sherry's (1992) non-parametric methods. These scientific testing methods...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076962

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