In contrast to a posterior analysis given a particular sampling model, posterior model probabilities in the context of model uncertainty are typically rather sensitive to the specification of the prior. In particular, "diffuse'' priors on model-specific parameters can lead to quite unexpected...

Most multivariate measures of skewness in the literature measure the overall skewness of a distribution. While these measures are perfectly adequate for testing the hypothesis of distributional symmetry, their relevance for describing skewed distributions is less obvious. In this article, we...

This paper deals with the issue of modeling daily catches of fishing boats in the Grand Bank fishing grounds. We have data on catches per species for a number of vessels collected by the European Union in the context of the North Atlantic Fisheries Organization. Many variables can be thought to...

This paper develops a set of management and production criteria needed to be used in order to maximize profits and shareholder values. If these criteria are achieved, the firm may achieve and sustain “supernormal” profits and revenue growth. The criteria developed here are all related to the...

Maximum Probability method is used to translate possibly contiguous and overlapping categorical observations into frequencies.

We propose a structural credit risk model for consumer lending using option theory and the concept of the value of the consumer’s reputation. Using Brazilian empirical data and a credit bureau score as proxy for creditworthiness we compare a number of alternative models before suggesting one...

Banks’ holding of reasonable capital buffers in excess of minimum requirements could alleviate the procyclicality problem potentially exacerbated by the rating-sensitive capital charges of Basel II. Determining the required buffer size is an important risk management issue for banks, which the...

Some empirical investigations are pointing to the fact that high-tech firms are subject to credit rationing to a higher extent than the average. This excess of credit rationing may not be due to information asymmetries, but rather to the inability of credit institutions to screen projects in...

The current debate on the new Basel Accord gives rise to a natural question about the appropriate form of capital regulation.We construct a simple framework to analyze this issue. In our model the risk carried by a bank as well as managerial risk preference are a bank's private information. We...

We propose a Bayesian methodology that enables banks to improve their credit scoring models by imposing prior information. As prior information, we use coefficients from credit scoring models estimated on other data sets. Through simulations, we explore the default prediction power of three...