We model daily catches of fishing boats in the Grand Bank fishing grounds. We use data on catches per species for a number of vessels collected by the European Union in the context of the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization. Many variables can be thought to influence the amount caught: a...

This paper presents experimental evidence about how individuals learn from information that comes from inside versus outside their ethnic group. In the experiment, Thai subjects observed information that came from Americans and other Thais that they could use to help them answer a series of...

The structural vector autoregression (SVAR) has become a central tool for research in empirical macroeconomics. Because the vast majority of these models are exactly identified, researchers have traditionally relied upon the informal use of prior information to compare alternative...

A welfare analysis of a risky policy is impossible within a linear or linearized model and its certainty equivalence property. The presented algorithms are designed as a toolbox for a general model class. The computational challenges are considerable and I concentrate on the numerics and...

We proposed clear, methodologically sound framework for analyzing SVAR with priors on impulse responses. We showed it poses no difficulties in deriving the posterior which even in case of unidentified SVAR with flat prior on impulse functions (under the appropriate requirement tying number of...

This paper develops a Bayesian vector autoregressive model(BVAR) for the leader of the Portuguese car market to forecast the market share. The model includes five marketing decision variables.The Bayesian prior is selected on the basis of the accuracy of the out-of-sample forecasts. We find that...

Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms within the limited information Bayesian framework, we estimate the parameters of the structural equation of interest and test weak exogeneity in a simultaneous equation model with white noise as well as autocorrelated error terms. A numerical example and...

We investigate the issue of model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). We find that the posterior probability is very spread among many models suggesting the superiority of BMA over choosing any single model. Out-of-sample predictive results...

We investigate the issue of model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). We find that the posterior probability is very spread among many models suggesting the superiority of BMA over choosing any single model. Out-of-sample predictive results...

Monetary policy has been usually analyzed in the context of small macroeconomic models where central banks are allowed to exploit a limited amount of information. Under these frameworks, researchers typically derive the optimality of aggressive monetary rules, contrasting with the observed...