This zip archive contains implementations of the trend-cycle-season filter in Eviews, Excel, and MatLab. The trend-cycle-season filter is another univariate method to decompose a time series into a trend, a cyclical and a seasonal component: the Trend-Cycle filter (TC filter) and its extension,...

The aims of this paper are estimate and forecast the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment, or NAIRU, for Brazilian unemployment time series data. In doing so, we introduce a methodology for estimating mixed additive seasonal autoregressive (MASAR) models, by the Generalized Method of...

In this paper we consider bayesian semiparametric regression within the generalized linear model framework. Specifically, we study a class of autoregressive time series where the time trend is incorporated in a nonparametrically way. Estimation and inference where performed through Markov Chain...

In this paper we extend the model of Easley and O'Hara (1992) to allow the arrival rates of informed and uninformed trades to be time-varying and forecastable. We specify a generalized autoregressive bivariate process for the arrival rates of informed and uninformed trades and estimate the model...

This paper proposes a new univariate method to decompose a time series into a trend, a cyclical and a seasonal component: the Trend-Cycle filter (TC filter) and its extension, the Trend-Cycle-Season filter (TCS filter). They can be regarded as extensions of the Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP...

We study the asymptotic behaviour of frequency domain maximum likelihood estimators of mis-specified models of long memory Gaussian series. We show that even if the long memory structure of the time series is correctly specified, mis-specification of the short memory dynamics may result in...

This paper investigates the finite sample distribution of the least squares estimator of the autoregressive parameter in a first-order autoregressive model. Uniform asymptotic expansion for the distribution applicable to both stationary and nonstationary cases is obtained. Accuracy of...

We analyze by simulation the properties of two time domain and two frequency domain estimators for low order autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average Gaussian models, ARFIMA (p,d,q). The estimators considered are the exact maximum likelihood for demeaned data, EML, the associated...

This paper investigates the finite sample distribution of the least squares estimator of the autoregressive parameter in a first-order autoregressive model. Uniform asymptotic expansion for the distribution applicable to both stationary and nonstationary cases is obtained. Accuracy of the...

This paper investigates the feasibility of measuring the efficacy of programs designed to move welfare recipients into jobs using administrative records on individual program participation linked with state records on individual earnings. Like many states, Missouri collects quarterly earnings...