This paper describes the experiences of developing country enterprises, farmers and governments with commodity price risk management and various forms of structured finance. It explores the constraints that these entities face in using modern financial markets, including counterparty and...

This paper re-examines the effects of inflation and exchange rate uncertainty on real economic activity. The existent literature has treated both issues as separate subject matters. It has emphasized either the issue of inflation uncertainty or exchange rate uncertainty on economic growth or on...

Este trabajo intenta mostrar algunos de los requerimientos para la implementación del Inflation Targeting como ancla nominal de la economía – y su capacidad de ser implementados en Argentina -a la luz de la experiencia brasileña y las dificultades experimentadas a lo largo de los cuatro...

Dentro de los casos más recientes de transición a regímenes de flotación del tipo de cambio, el caso brasileño por su cercanía geográfica e intensidad de la relación bilateral, así como el éxito obtenido en términos de baja inflación en los precios al consumidor, relativa estabilidad...

Can scoring models help microfinance lenders in poor countries as much as they have helped credit-card lenders in rich countries? I model the probability that loans from a microlender in Bolivia had arrears of 15 days or more. Although arrears in microfinance depend on many factors difficult to...

This paper presents a scoring model that predicts the risk of drop-out for borrowers at a microfinance lender in Bolivia. Drop-out risk was greater for women, manufacturers, newer borrowers, and those with more arrears. Out-of-sample tests suggest that scoring may help microfinance lenders to...

This paper examines the forecasting performance of GARCH’s models used with agricultural commodities data. We compare different possible sources of forecasting improvement, using various statistical distributions and models. We have chosen to confine our analysis on four indices which are the...