We analyze an economy with asymmetric information and endogenize the possibilities for information transmission between members of a coalition. We then define a concept of the Core that takes into account these communication possibilities. The internal consistency of the improvements is...

Aumann(1976) has shown that agents who have a common prior cannot have common knowledge of their posteriors for event E if these posteriors do not coincide. But given an event E, can the agents have posteriors with a common prior such that it is common knowledge that the posteriors for E *do*...

Economic theory predicts that in a first-price auction with equal and observable valuations, bidders earn zero profits. Theory also predicts that if valuations are not common knowledge, then since it is weakly dominated to bid your valuation, bidders will bid less and earn positive profits....

This paper formulates dynamic R\&D investment decisions of private firms as an optimal stochastic control problem. It derives explicitly R\&D investment decision rule and the cross equations parameter restrictions imposed by the rational expectations hypothesis, using the Riccati equations only...

Successful descriptions of the short-term nominal interest rate inertial behavior have frequently been obtained with small scale macro models in which a Central Banker minimizes a loss function containing an argument labelled as interest rate smoothing. The rationale for this argument is not...

During the decade of the 1970’s the US economy unexpectedly suffered from “stagflation” namely, high unemployment, slowed economic growth and high rates of inflation. During the 1980’s the major macroeconomic problem became high interest rates and massive government deficits....

Most prices and interest rates display fluctuating levels that embody extractable energy and equivalent amounts of money. Such fluctuations are also associated with varying degrees of uncertainty. Shannon's derivations of spectral entropy and information content offer computational techniques...

In this paper we analyse disinflation policy in two environments. In the first, the central bank has perfect knowledge, in the sense that it understands and observes the process by which private sector inflation expectations are generated; in the second, the central bank has to learn the private...

This research explored two major insurance-market issues. First, it investigated the dynamic interactions between premiums and losses using vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Second, it showed how premiums respond to shocks to losses, surplus, interest rates, the variance in losses, and the...

SINCE 1930, EXPECTATIONS HAVE PLAYED AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN ECONOMIC THEORY AND THIS IS BECAUSE ECONOMICS IS GENERALLY CONCERNED WITH THE IMPLICATIONS OF CURRENT ACTIONS FOR THE FUTURE. THIS PAPER THEREFORE ARGUES THAT THE DEVELOPMENT OF RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS THEORY WILL MAKE A MORE SIGNIFICANT...