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STOCK MARKET VALUATION IN THE UNITED STATES
BISCIARI, Patrick; DURRE, Alain; NYSSENS, Alain - EconWPA - 2003
This paper gives an overview of some issues related to market aluation, focusing on the developments on the New York equity markets. The 42.4 p.c. fall in the S&P 500 price index between 24 March 2000 - when it reached its all-time high - and 31 December 2002 is situated in a very long term...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125064
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Inflation Targeting: to Forecast or to Simulate
Skorepa, Michal; Kotlan, Viktor - EconWPA - 2003
two basic ways of assessing future inflation: forecast and simulation. A forecast is the most likely picture of the future …. In a forecast, all agents are assumed to behave in the most likely way. A simulation, on the other hand, is the most … differentiating between a forecast and a simulation, we discuss the pros and cons of using the two ways of assessing future inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561292
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The function of the central bank
Stanners, Walter - EconWPA - 2002
The general view of the media, bankers, business and politicians, not noticeably contradicted by academics, is that one of the main functions, or the main function, of the central bank is to analyse the progress of the economy, and then to steer it with skilful judgement towards health and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561324
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A learning hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates
Romhányi, Balázs - EconWPA - 2005
Recent empirical results about the US term structure are difficult to reconcile with the classical hypothesis of rational expectations even if time-varying but stationary term premia are allowed for. A hypothesis of rational learning about the conditional variance of the log pricing kernel is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005412568
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Limited Commitment, Inaction and Optimal Monetary Policy
Mirzoev, Tokhir - EconWPA - 2004
This paper examines the optimal frequency of monetary policy meetings when their schedule is pre-announced. Our contribution is twofold. First, we show that in the standard New Keynesian framework infrequent but periodic revision of monetary policy may be desirable even when there are no...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076774
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The Philippine Central Bank's Monetary Policy Reaction Function from 1992 to 2003
Salas, John Michael Ian S. - EconWPA - 2004
This paper attempts to provide an empirical determination of the Philippine central bank's (BSP) recent monetary policy stance, before and after its adoption of the inflation targeting framework, as revealed by its interest rate setting behavior. Employing Clarida, Gali, and Gertler's (1998,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561255
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WOULD ADOPTING THE US DOLLAR HAVE LED TO IMPROVED INFLATION, OUTPUT AND TRADE BALANCES FOR NEW ZEALAND IN THE 1990s?
Hall, Viv; Huang, Angela - EconWPA - 2004
Deterministic simulations with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s core FPS model show how New Zealand’s broad macroeconomic environment might have evolved over the 1990s, if a US nominal yield curve and US TWI exchange rate movements under a common currency arrangement had been...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005412749
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Modelling Possible Impacts of GM Crops on Australian Trade
Stone, Susan; Matysek, Anna; Dolling, Andrew - EconWPA - 2003
This paper looks at the impact on Australia’s trade in crops (non-wheat grains and oilseeds) where GM technology has been introduced. The model includes assumptions about the productivity gains of GM crops, possible consumer responses and regulatory costs for Australia and its major trading...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005407855
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How Expert Are the Experts?
JS, Armstrong - EconWPA - 2005
If you want good forecasts for your industry, you should hire the best experts. Right? Well, maybe not.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005062668
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Damped Seasonality Factors: Introduction
Armstrong, J. S. - EconWPA - 2005
Previous research has shown that seasonal factors provide one of the most important ways to improve forecast accuracy … the other hand, research has also shown that seasonal factors sometimes increase forecast errors (e.g., Nelson, 1972). So …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556557