This paper is intended to give some alternative positive suggestion on how to cope with the must of the cutting off the oil subsidy domestically. The problem that faced by the government is that the compensation fund will hardly enjoyed by the poor, and moreover it is hard to watch out the whole...

This paper proposes to model the error term in smooth transition autoregressive target zone model as Gaussian with stochastic volatility (STARTZ-SV) or as Student-t with GARCH volatility (STARTZ-TGARCH). Using the dynamics of Norwegian krone exchange rate index, we show that both models produce...

This paper constructs long-term forecasts of energy prices using a reduced form model of shifting trend developed by Pindyck (1999). A Gibbs sampling algorithm is developed to estimate models with a shifting trend line which are used to construct 10-period-ahead and 15-period ahead forecasts. An...

This paper re-examines the effects of inflation and exchange rate uncertainty on real economic activity. The existent literature has treated both issues as separate subject matters. It has emphasized either the issue of inflation uncertainty or exchange rate uncertainty on economic growth or on...

The paper tests whether there were events of contagion, and portfolio shift, in the sovereign bond markets of eleven emerging countries' between January 1995 and November 2001. From existing definitions, we narrow down the concept of contagion by focusing on pricing errors, after general market...

This paper investigates the nature of the causal relationship between stock prices and effective exchange rates in four old EU-member countries (Austria, France, Germany, and the UK), four new EU-member countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia) and in the USA. Both the long-run...

Although recet research has repeatedly found a negative association between investment and socio-political instability (SPI), the existence and direction of causality between these two variables has not yet been investigated. We construct an index of SPI for non-overlaping five-years periods...

We are interested on assessing the effectiveness of the Bank of Greece (BoG) exchange rate policy, to achieve the objective of adjusting balance of payments des-equilibrium, during the period 1983:1-1995:12. The traditional theory of the balance of payments adjustment process through exchange...

In this study we mainly dealt with money demand in broad sense for the period between 1987(I) when significant reforms related with money policy of Turkey were realised, and 1999(IV) when drastic measures were taken to cope with inflation. Moreover, interrelation between real money demand used...

One of the most enduring debates in economics is whether financial development causes economic growth or whether it is a consequence of increased economic activity. Little research into this question, however has used a true causality framework. This paper fills this lacuna by using...