In this paper we address the issue of modeling spot electricity prices. After analyzing factors leading to the unobservable in other financial or commodity markets price dynamics we propose a mean reverting jump diffusion model. We fit the model to data from the Nord Pool power exchange and find...

For many economic problems standard statistical analysis, based on the notion of stationarity, is not adequate. These include modeling seasonal decisions of consumers, forecasting business cycles and - as we show in the present article - modeling wholesale power market prices. We apply standard...

In this paper we investigate the factors contributing to the fall in the Lerner Index (price-cost margin) in the British electricity market during the 90s. A first stage of our analysis models the number of breaks in the Lerner Index and their dating as unknowns. Our results suggest the...

\We analyze the time-series of prices in the Spanish electricity market by means of a time varying-transition-probability Markov switching model. Accounting for changes in demand and cost conditions (which reflect changes in input costs, capacity availability and hydro power), we show that the...

In this paper we study simple time series models and assess their forecasting performance. In particular we calibrate ARMA and ARMAX (where the exogenous variable is the system load) processes. Models are tested on a time series of California power market system prices and loads from the period...

The objective of this paper is to measure the price impacts of the major regulatory interventions in the England & Wales wholesale electricity market from 1 April 1990 to 31 March 2002. More particularly, to establish whether falling prices during 1999–2002 were caused by the regulator...

The objectives of this paper are to assess the progress made towards a single European wholesale electricity market by the end of 2001, and identify remaining sources of economic inefficiency. Statistical analysis of day-ahead prices, in fifteen European locations, show Nord Pool (Scandinavia),...

In this paper we study two statistical approaches to load forecasting. Both of them model electricity load as a sum of two components – a deterministic (representing seasonalities) and a stochastic (representing noise). They differ in the choice of the seasonality reduction method. Model A...

Distributions for returns are used to compute the capital charge for portfolios in investment banks. The mainstream definition of returns is based on closing prices and neglects the important effects of intraday trading activity on the losses . In this paper we introduce ''minimal returns'', a...

The United Kingdom began deregulating its electric market years before the U.S. Thus, the UK provides the best example of what can be expected in the deregulated residential retail electric market in the United States. . An extensive review of the evidence found: Questionable price savings:...