This study examines the forecastability of ASEAN-5 stock market returns using linear and non-linear time series models. Time series models with GARCH errors are also considered. Based on formal econometrics tests, this study shows that the behaviour of these returns do not follow random walk...

The aim of this paper is to develop and apply Neural Network (NN) models in order to forecast regional employment patterns in Germany. NNs are statistical tools based on learning algorithms with a distribution over a large amount of quantitative data. NNs are increasingly deployed in the social...

This paper surveys and examines the sources of fluctuations in inflation and output in Turkey. Using a dynamic open economy aggregate supply - aggregate demand model with imperfect capital mobility and structural vector-autoregressions, the authors consider real oil price, supply, balance of...

Using a dynamic aggregate supply and aggregate demand model with imperfect capital mobility and structural VARs, we decompose inflation and output movements into those attributable to terms of trade, supply, balance-of-payments, fiscal, and monetary shocks. Empirical results show that terms of...

A key parameter that determines the distributional impacts of a policy shift in general equilibrium models is the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor. Despite the importance of this parameter in applied modeling, its identification continues to pose a challenge. Given the...

This paper documents a new "stylized fact" regarding commodity prices using alternative datasets covering the period from 1880 to 1996: The volatility of real commodity prices, defined as nominal commodity prices deflated by the manufacturing unit value index, is higher under flexible-exchange...

According to several empirical studies, US inflation and nominal interest rates, as well as the real interest rate, can be described as unit root processes. These results imply that nominal interest rates and expected inflation do not move one-for-one in the long run, which is not consistent...

En este trabajo se estudia la rentabilidad de la empresa agroalimentaria en Andalucía (España)mediante un conjunto de ratios, elaborados por el Instituto de Estadística de Andalucía a partir de la Central de Balances de Actividades Empresariales de Andalucía. El objeto es encontrar las...

This paper addresses the question of whether neural networks, a realistic cognitive model of the human information processing, can learn to backward induce in a two stage game with a unique subgame-perfect Nash Equilibrium. The result that the neural networks only learn a heuristic that...