Using panel data for a large number of countries, we find that economic contractions are not followed by offsetting fast recoveries. Trend output lost is not regained, on average. Wars, crises, and other negative shocks lead to absolute divergence and lower long-run growth, whereas we find...

It is common amonst macroeconomists to view aggregate investment fluctuations as a rational response to fluctuating incentives, driven by exogenous movements in total factor productivity. However, this approach raises a number of questions. Why treat investments in physical capital as...