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Asset Prices and Monetary Policy: Some Notes

Cai, Junning - EconWPA - 2003

Three issues regarding asset prices and monetary policy are clarified. First, increases in asset prices due to monetary expansion, despite their “paper” wealth nature, tend to make current consumers as a whole wealthier. Second, the weaker (stronger) effect of monetary policy on investment...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005126230

Should Central Banks Burst Bubbles?

Conlon, John - EconWPA - 2005

Policy towards speculative bubbles is examined in a model of a finite horizon 'greater fool' bubble, with rational … only in 'strong bubbles,', where all private agents know the asset is overpriced, this tends to reduce welfare. This is …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005550948

Fundamental Paper Wealth and Monetary Policy

Cai, Junning - EconWPA - 2003

This paper articulates three insights regarding asset prices and monetary policy: (1) Asset price appreciation due to monetary expansion, despite its “paper” wealth nature, tends to make current consumers as a whole wealthier; (2) the wealth effect of monetary policy (on consumption) is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561161

Teoria dei Processi Imitativi e Applicazioni Economiche

Arnone, Marco - EconWPA - 2004

This paper provides a survey of recent theories of herding behaviour, bridging two rather distants strands of literature (roughly, American and European). In the first part of the paper the explanation is based on the idea of asymmetric information and principal-agent approach; these could lead...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005119477

STOCK MARKET VALUATION IN THE UNITED STATES

BISCIARI, Patrick; DURRE, Alain; NYSSENS, Alain - EconWPA - 2003

occasions were the so-called 1929 and 2000 bubbles. The models showed that, at some point in time before the peak in (real …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125064

How Expert Are the Experts?

JS, Armstrong - EconWPA - 2005

If you want good forecasts for your industry, you should hire the best experts. Right? Well, maybe not.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005062668

Damped Seasonality Factors: Introduction

Armstrong, J. S. - EconWPA - 2005

Previous research has shown that seasonal factors provide one of the most important ways to improve forecast accuracy … the other hand, research has also shown that seasonal factors sometimes increase forecast errors (e.g., Nelson, 1972). So …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556557

Inflation Targeting: to Forecast or to Simulate

Skorepa, Michal; Kotlan, Viktor - EconWPA - 2003

two basic ways of assessing future inflation: forecast and simulation. A forecast is the most likely picture of the future …. In a forecast, all agents are assumed to behave in the most likely way. A simulation, on the other hand, is the most … differentiating between a forecast and a simulation, we discuss the pros and cons of using the two ways of assessing future inflation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561292

AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION Flash Estimate 2004 and Forecast 2005

Dario, Buono; Barbara, Matteucci - EconWPA - 2005

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561316

Beyond macro variables: consumer confidence index and household expenditure in Hungary

Vadas, Gabor - EconWPA - 2005

One of the most important aspects of consumer surveys is the computation of the consumer confidence index, which aims to provide accurate figures on the financial position and outlook of households as well as their intention concerning future consumption and savings. . Although the motion of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561813