The behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) model of the Czech koruna is derived in this paper and estimated by three methods suitable for non-stationary time series. The considered potential determinants of the real equilibrium exchange rate are the productivity differential, the interest...

Just when China’s leaders receive conflicting signals of “overheating” and “below-potential growth”, they encounter tremendous external pressure to revalue the Renminbi (RMB) substantially. Our conclusion is that the major macroeconomic challenges have their roots in China’s...

Although most CIS and East Asian countries are de jure classified as free floaters, they de facto pursue (tight) dollar pegs. This paper emphasizes dollar denomination of short-term and long-term payment flows as reasons for exchange rate stabilization. Based on the analysis of ifcompetitive...

Since the start of the 1990s, several countries have abandoned fixed- but-adjustable exchange rate regimes. The tendency towards floating exchange rate regimes, or alternatively monetary unions, has given rise to a debate on the disappearance of pure currency crises, and the literature has...

This paper attempts to carry out a study of relative importance of anticipated and unanticipated external crises for the dynamics of economic growth. The estimations are carried out within a two equation system capturing the possibility of a common shock to external crises and growth. The effect...

Using nonlinear unit root tests developed by Kapetanios et al. (2003), we find strong evidence that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based Malaysian Ringgit – U.S. Dollar (MYR/USD) real exchange rates are nonlinear stationary, implying that MYR/USD nominal...

Using nonlinear unit root tests developed by Kapetanios et al. (2003), we find strong evidence that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based Malaysian Ringgit – U.S. Dollar (MYR/USD) real exchange rates are nonlinear stationary, implying that MYR/USD nominal...

This paper untangles the causes behind real exchange rate devaluation events with particular attention paid to the Sudden Stop of capital flows. By utilizing cumulative impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis, we argue that there is the asymmetric response across Sudden...

The study examines the reasons for financial crises in 31 emerging market countries during 1980-2001. It estimates a probit model using 23 macroeconomic and financial sector variables. Traditional variables such as unemployment and inflation, as well as several indicators of indebtedness such as...

This study re-examines the validity of relationship between Singapore Dollar-US Dollar exchange rate and the relative price using the latest econometric methodologies that accounts for non-linearity. Among others, this study finds Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive (ESTAR)- type...