We study the basic economic problem of choice between long-term and short-term commitments under a general characterization of uncertainty (aggregate uncertainty). When contingencies are contractible, a perfect market of Arrow-Debreau contingent claims implements the social optimum. When...

En los últimos años, se han realizado diversos estudios a nivel mundial utilizando el modelo de crecimiento y convergencia económica, a través de países y de regiones. Para el caso de México, hasta la segunda mitad de los noventas comienza el análisis empírico de la convergencia...

This paper is an exercise in applied macroeconomic forecasting. We examine the forecasting power of a vector error-correction model (VECM) that is anchored by a long-run equilibrium relationship between Greek national income and productive public expenditure as suggested by the economic theory....

A welfare analysis of a risky policy is impossible within a linear or linearized model and its certainty equivalence property. The presented algorithms are designed as a toolbox for a general model class. The computational challenges are considerable and I concentrate on the numerics and...

In this discussion draft, linking research findings with concrete operational challenges, we review key issues in worldwide governance, and present recent empirical evidence. Focusing on defining and unbundling key governance components, such as rule of law, voice and accountability, corruption...

Para conocer el efecto que la apertura comercial ha tenido en la tasa de crecimiento economico de largo plazo y en el proceso de convergencia real entre los estados de Mexico, el presente estudio revisa el marco teorico y conceptual que parece mas adecaudo para esta finalidad, que no es otro que...

The purpose of the paper is to present a tractable model of an old topic which is becoming more important in macroeconomics: the link between financial structure and economic activity.

This paper reports first results from a survey of 404 middle-sized and large manufacturing firms from 40 Russian regions in April-June 2003. We examine the extent of social service and infrastructure provision by the firms and the firms’ assessment of the quality of public infrastructure and...

We discuss how the organization of society, the complexity of the economy, and its level of technological development influence the relationship between the institutions of democracy and economic growth; why the foundation of democracy and market institutions at the same time, in a society...

This original working paper has appeared in a slightly revised form in The International Journal of Systems Science, vol. 25, no. 5, 1994, pp. 839-848. That special edition consisted of opinion papers regarding the state of the field of macroeconomics. This paper contains my views on that subject.