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expectations to match the inertia in the data and to improve the fit of estimated New Keynesian Phillips curves. The empirical … results show that when learning replaces the assumption of fully rational expectations, structural sources of persistence in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005412860
and inflation indexation, that are typically needed in monetary models with rational expectations to match the persistence … replaces rational expectations, the estimated degrees of habits and indexation drop near zero. This finding suggests that … persistence arises in the model economy mainly from expectations and learning. The posterior model probabilities show that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561139
rational expectations. This paper relaxes the assumption of rational expectations and it allows for learning instead. Economic … agents form expectations from simple models and update the parameters through constant-gain learning. I estimate the model by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005126467
We examine whether a simple agent--based model can generate asset price bubbles and crashes of the type observed in a … bubbles. We have to put more structure on the behavior of the ZI-agents in order to address features of the laboratory asset … environments used in several different laboratory studies, generates asset price bubbles and crashes comparable to those observed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076911
Investors systematically deviate from rationality when making financial decisions, yet the mechanisms responsible for these deviations have not been identified. Using event-related fMRI, we examined whether anticipatory neural activity would predict optimal and suboptimal choices in a financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556666
This paper demonstrates that the adaptive learning approach to modelling private sector expectations can be used as an … the two rational expectations equilibria is stable under least-squares learning, and that it is always the low …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125682
adaptive expectations and partial adjustment mechanisms. The paper demonstrates the difficulty of interpreting distributed lag …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076678
This paper investigates whether expectations of trustworthiness and resulting acts of trust accord with an objective …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005118769
The paper is concerned with a class of trend cycle filters, encompassing popular ones, such as the Hodrick-Prescott filter, that are derived using the Wiener-Kolmogorov signal extraction theory under maintained models that prove unrealistic in applied time series analysis. As the maintained...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005407935
Prevailing trade theory is a neglected stepchild of economics. Micro rejects the sole reason for trade’s occurrence. It declares zero profit in equilibrium. Monetary theory and macroeconomics dismiss concerns of trade financing. They assert that money has nothing to do with traded output, but...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005408069