Basci, Erdem; Ekinci, Mehmet Fatih; Yulek, Murat - EconWPA - 2004
fiscal policy rules in terms of their impact on debt sustainability: a rule that fixes the ratio of primary surplus to GDP … (“fixed surplus rule”) and one that sets the primary surplus as a linear function of debt to GDP ratio (“variable surplus rule …”). A simple debt dynamics equation, incorporating real shocks, is constructed, and the probability of exceeding the …