This paper revisits the question if the user cost of capital plays an important role for investment decisions using Bayesian estimation techniques. These methods offer advantages over classical econometric tools in this area: The most important are that prior distributions offer a convincing way...

A welfare analysis of a risky policy is impossible within a linear or linearized model and its certainty equivalence property. The presented algorithms are designed as a toolbox for a general model class. The computational challenges are considerable and I concentrate on the numerics and...

This work is focused on identifying a circular pull production control system (PPCS) and make emphasis on the presence of a stability attribute. It is an introductory paper to an extended study of macroeconomic financial stability in a physically open but systemic closed system. Previous work...

The open financial economic systems of six Asian countries Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, Indonesia and Japan - over the period 1986 through 1995 are identified from empirical data to determine how their stock markets, economies and financial markets are interrelated. The objective is...

We reconsider the valuation of barrier options by means of binomial trees from a "forward looking" prospective rather than the more conventional "backward induction" one used by standard approaches. Our reformulation allows us to write closed-form expressions for the value of European and...

In a presentation to the American Economics Association, McCloskey (1998) argued that "statistical significance is bankrupt" and that economists' time would be "better spent on finding out How Big Is Big". This brief survey is devoted to methods of determining "How Big Is Big". It is concerned...

Many macroeconomic models (including the NKPC - "New Keynesian" Phillips Curve) involve hybrid equations, in which some variables depend on both their lags and leads. Hybrid models have produced conflicting empirical results: GMM (respectively ML) estimation find the forward- looking component...

Although linearly interpolated series are often used in economics, little has been done to examine the effects of interpolation on time series properties and on statistical inference. We show that linear interpolation of a trend tationary series superimposes a ‘periodic’ structure on the...

The consequences of international migration for development in countries of origin and destination remain hotly debated. The immigration flows could be considered an appropriate mechanism to contribute to the de- velopment of origin countries if origin countries recognize the qualifications of...

Correct assessment of the risks associated with likely economic outcomes is vital for effective decision making. The objective of investment in the stock market is to obtain positive market returns. The risk, however, is the danger of suffering large negative market returns. A variety of...