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This paper examines the forecasting performance of GARCH’s models used with agricultural commodities data. We compare different possible sources of forecasting improvement, using various statistical distributions and models. We have chosen to confine our analysis on four indices which are the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005134650
financial risk based on asset classes only is ready for a epistemological change. Currently, the definition of financial risk … suffers from three major deficiencies: (1) financial risk is insufficiently measured by the conventional second - order … moments; (2) financial risk is assumed to be stable and all distribution moments are assumed to be time-invariant; and (3 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005077030
financial instruments in the portfolio and on the volatility of those returns.This task is relatively simple if the correlations … order to prevent against crises.Portfolio managers typically rely on estimates of correlations between returns on the … and volatilities do not change over time.But in reality both volatility and stock market indexes’ correlations do change …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124892
, using a bivariate SWARCH model to show the dependence of the high and low volatility states of the IT.CAC on the NASDAQ-100 …, with no intermediate simultaneous high-low volatility states. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556399
modeling this market’s high volatility to prevent against crises.The strong linkage of the American and European New Technology …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005119158
The statistical forecasting efficiency of new crop corn and soybean futures is the topic of frequent academic inquiry … producers are faced with the decision to plant either corn or soybeans on marginal acreage. Agronomic concerns aside, these … decisions hinge on the expected relative return of corn versus soybeans, which is largely a function of expected new crop prices …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005413204
corn and soybeans producer at planting, of revenue realized at harvest. The effects of using price and crop yield contracts … draw four major conclusions from the results. First, hedging effectiveness using the new crop yield contract depends … critically on yield basis risk which presumably can be reduced considerably by covering large geographical areas. Second, crop …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005413077
hog futures price, this paper compares the hedging effectiveness of the live hog futures contract to the hedging potential … hedging instrument for Omaha cash hogs and cash loins. The strongest evidence of this is for the short-term hedging of cash … hogs. For the other three meats, no futures contract demonstrated a clear hedging advantage. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005413088
Value-at-Risk (VaR) determines the probability of a portfolio of assets losing a certain amount in a given time period … due to adverse market conditions with a particular level of confidence. Value-at-Risk has received considerable attention … from financial economists and financial practitioners for its use in risk reporting, in particular the risks of derivatives …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076967
risk management and various forms of structured finance. It explores the constraints that these entities face in using … modern financial markets, including counterparty and sovereign risk obstacles, and problems in their legal and regulatory …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005413090