This paper demonstrates that the adaptive learning approach to modelling private sector expectations can be used as an equilibriumselection mechanism in a natural-rate monetary model with unemployment persistence. In particular, it is shown that only one of the two rational expectations...

This paper studies the estimation of dynamic discrete games of incomplete information. Two main econometric issues appear in the estimation of these models: the indeterminacy problem associated with the existence of multiple equilibria, and the computational burden in the solution of the game....

I study Cournot competition under incomplete information about demand while assuming that market price must be non-negative for all demand realizations. Although this assumption is very natural, it has only rarely been made in the earlier literature. Yet it has important economic consequences:...

This paper analyses the implications of information dissemination on currency crises in models with self-fulfilling expectations. Following Morris/Shin (1999, 2000), we introduce noisy private and public information, so that under certain conditions for the noise parameters a unique equilibrium...

In this paper we investigate economic growth in economies where households face liquidity constraints, and young agents rely on the family to finance their investments in education. We analyze the type of family aid in which youths can borrow because their parents guarantee the loan repayment...

Special pairs of the utility functions and the production functions are used in this paper to uncover the transitional dynamics in a Lucas model of growth. The main findings are as follows: A continuum of equilibria exists if the external effect of human capital in goods production is...

Many emerging or transition economies lack institutional arrangements (like ISO certification) to credibly signal product quality. The absence of such institutions leads to low levels of market activity with poor quality products on sale. In this paper, we use a dynamic framework with asymmetric...

In the literature, little role is attributed to the country risk conditional volatility in the determination of the macroeconomic equilibrium in a developing small open economy (DSOE). This paper posits the prime hypothesis that, in the presence of multiple equilibria and self-fulfilling...

When a country abandons a fixed, or target zone exchange regime it usually claims that the regime was "fundamentally" sound but that it was undermined by pernicious speculation. The validity of the claim is impossible to assess using only observable data-there always exists a future path of...

We study extinction in a commons problem in which agents have access to capital markets. When the commons grows more quickly than the interest rate, multiple equilibria are found for intermediate commons endowments. In one of these, extinction is hastened and welfare decreases in the endowment,...