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Castagnoli, Erio; LiCalzi, Marco - EconWPA - 2005

This paper advances an interpretation of Von Neumann–Morgenstern’s expected utility model for preferences over lotteries which does not require the notion of a cardinal utility over prizes and can be phrased entirely in the language of probability. According to it, the expected utility of a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005118603

Recognizing Investment Opportunities at the Onset of Recoveries

Fioretti, Guido - EconWPA - 2002

Investment decision-making is modeled by means of a Kohonen neural net, where neurons represent firms. This is done in order to model investments in novel fields of economic activity, that according to this model are carried out when firms recognize the emergence of a new technological pattern....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076670

Neural correlates of the affect heuristic during brand choice

Plassmann, Hilke; Kenning, Peter; Deppe, Michael; … - EconWPA - 2005

In this working paper it is investigated how affect and cognition interact in consumer decision making. The research … brand choice immediately when the decision is computed in the test person’s brain. In a neuroscientific experiment test …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125573

Evidence Theory: A Mathematical Framework for Unpredictable Hypotheses

Fioretti, Guido - EconWPA - 2002

Shafer's evidence theory is a branch of the mathematics of uncertain reasoning that allows for novel possibilities to be conceived by a decision-maker. Many of its findings exhibit striking similarities with an alternative decision theory purported by Shackle in the 1950s, before expected...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125582

Ideologies, Beliefs, and Economic Advice - A Cognitive- Evolutionary View on Economic Policy-Making

Slembeck, Tilman - EconWPA - 2000

Economists often perceive the “ideological beliefs“ held by political actors as obstacles to rational policy-making. In contrast, it is argued that ideologies have characteristics that appear desirable in policy- making in that they allow political actors to credibly commit themselves to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556964

Knowledge and Structure

Fioretti, Guido - EconWPA - 2002

This article presents a formalization of knowledge based on a connectionist model of a firm's structure. Transaction costs are not ignored, but integrated with the knowledge-based approach. A numerical example on the canonical comparison of "Japanese" versus "American" organizational structures...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561473

Management von Mitarbeiterrisiken in Unternehmen Theoretische Grundlagen und Entwicklung eines praxistauglichen Erfassungs- und Auswertungsverfahrens

Dannenberg, Henry - EconWPA - 2005

Die vorliegende Arbeit stellt einen Beitrag zur Bewertung von Mitarbeiterrisiken in Unternehmen dar. Es werden Ursachen determiniert, die einen Mitarbeiterausfall zur Folge haben. Diese werden auf ihre Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit sowie möglicher Schäden hin untersucht. Darauf aufbauend wird...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005118593

Agricultural Applications of Value-at-Risk Analysis: A Perspective

Manfredo, Mark R.; Leuthold, Raymond M. - EconWPA - 1998

Value-at-Risk (VaR) determines the probability of a portfolio of assets losing a certain amount in a given time period … due to adverse market conditions with a particular level of confidence. Value-at-Risk has received considerable attention … from financial economists and financial practitioners for its use in risk reporting, in particular the risks of derivatives …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076967

The 1998 Third Annual Survey of Risk Management Practices of Unit Trusts in Singapore

LOS, CORNELIS A. - EconWPA - 2004

transformation of the fund management industry in Singapore and focus on the improvement of its risk management practices. This … quality of both the survey responses and of the reported risk management practices has improved in the past three years. The …, investment styles and various kinds of risk exposures. Regrettably, still two thirds of the unit trusts do not provide any risk …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076989

Extreme Moves in Foreign Exchange Rates and Risk Limit Setting

Dacorogna, Michel; Blum, Peter - EconWPA - 2003

Foreign exchange rates can be subject to considerable daily fluctuations (up to 5 percent within one day). This can, in certain cases, cause serious losses on open overnight positions. Given a maximum tolerable loss for a company, limits have to be set on open overnight positions in foreign...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005126103