Differences in growth, productivity and inflation levels are going to be a prominent feature of the future of EMU, as …

This paper develops and estimates an unobserved components model for purposes of monetary policy analysis and inflation …

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that the success of the Litterman prior in VAR forecasting is not due to …

This paper compares the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of five classes of time series models for market shares of … employ a random-walk with drift (Naive), a univariate ARIMA, a near-VAR and a general BVAR. The out-of- sample forecasts are … measures I find the forecasts from the near-VAR and the BVAR models really more accurate. With regard to these models, I could …

are, according to the discount dividend model, annual earnings and, according to Q-theory, net worth. In December 2002 …

This paper examines the forecasting performance of GARCH’s models used with agricultural commodities data. We compare … different possible sources of forecasting improvement, using various statistical distributions and models. We have chosen to …

ratio when forecasting long-run returns. The empirical results for the S&P 500 show the superiority of our approach to …