In this paper we used a data set constructed for a companion paper (Fritsche/Stephan, 2000) where we explored the leading indicator properties of different time series for the German business cycle. Now we test for the ability of different indicator series to forecast recessions by using a...

The study examines the reasons for financial crises in 31 emerging market countries during 1980-2001. It estimates a probit model using 23 macroeconomic and financial sector variables. Traditional variables such as unemployment and inflation, as well as several indicators of indebtedness such as...

We model daily catches of fishing boats in the Grand Bank fishing grounds. We use data on catches per species for a number of vessels collected by the European Union in the context of the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization. Many variables can be thought to influence the amount caught: a...

We introduce an element of centralization in a random matching model of money that allows for private liabilities to circulate as media of exchange. Some agents, which we identify as banks, are endowed with the technology to issue notes and to record-keep reserves with a central clearinghouse,...

In economics, where the long resistance to reflecting on the effects of social interaction on economic behaviour is slowly waning, the concept of social capital may turn out to be a useful analytical tool. However, initial interest in social capital has produced a large variety of definitions,...

Over the last decade, research has shown that financing constraints have an important impact on many aspects of firm behavior and aggregate fluctuations. This paper undertakes a critical comparison of the three main financing constraint hypotheses- -the bank lending, collateral, and internal...

During the 80’s and 90’s, the increase in financial instability shook up the idyllic vision of the financial liberalization in developed nations. The difficulties borne by the banking sectors spread out in some Asian and Latin American countries as systemic crises. The deregulation of the...

After publishing its first report in September 1997, the Own Funds Working Group, in agreement with the European Committee of Central Balance Sheet Offices, decided to continue its work in order to gain a better understanding of the differences in financing structures between countries. To this...