Previous research has shown that seasonal factors provide one of the most important ways to improve forecast accuracy …. For example, in forecasts over an 18-month horizon for 68 monthly economic series from the M-Competition, Makridakis et al … the other hand, research has also shown that seasonal factors sometimes increase forecast errors (e.g., Nelson, 1972). So …

two basic ways of assessing future inflation: forecast and simulation. A forecast is the most likely picture of the future …. In a forecast, all agents are assumed to behave in the most likely way. A simulation, on the other hand, is the most … differentiating between a forecast and a simulation, we discuss the pros and cons of using the two ways of assessing future inflation …