We propose a Bayesian methodology that enables banks to improve their credit scoring models by imposing prior information. As prior information, we use coefficients from credit scoring models estimated on other data sets. Through simulations, we explore the default prediction power of three...

Explained variance (R^2) is a familiar summary of the fit of a linear regression and has been generalized in various ways to multilevel (hierarchical) models. The multilevel models we consider in this paper are characterized by hierarchical data structures in which individuals are grouped into...

In this paper we consider bayesian semiparametric regression within the generalized linear model framework. Specifically, we study a class of autoregressive time series where the time trend is incorporated in a nonparametrically way. Estimation and inference where performed through Markov Chain...

Various noninformative prior distributions have been suggested for scale parameters in hierarchical models. We construct a new folded-noncentral- t family of conditionally conjugate priors for hierarchical standard deviation parameters, and then consider noninformative and weakly informative...

This paper extends the analogy previously established by Leamer (1978a), between a Bayesian inference problem and an economics allocation problem, and shows that posterior modes can be interpreted as optimal outcomes of a bargaining game. This bargaining game, over a parameter value, is played...

For about twenty years, Deidre McCloskey has campaigned to convince the economics profession that it is hopelessly confused about statistical significance. She argues that many practices associated with significance testing are bad science and that most economists routinely employ these bad...

In this paper we develop a regression and a kernel density based model for finding fixed points and attractors of dynamical systems to explore attractors of structural change for NICs. The results show that countries consume longer time in some structures than the others. This can be interpreted...

Why do statisticians (econometricians, economists, financial analysts, etc.) continue to incompletely identify the algebraic/geometric structure of the multi-variate data series they profess to analyze, and instead continue to publish the results of incomplete, prejudiced and biased...

In this paper we develop a regression and a kernel density based model for finding fixed points and attractors of dynamical systems to explore attractors of structural change for NICs. The results show that countries consume longer time in some structures than the others. This can be interpreted...

While economists continue to debate whether individual economic policies, such as those contained in Willliamsons (1993) Washington Consensus, can help to spur growth in developing countries, this paper demonstrates that it is groups of policies that are more critical for growth. Policy...