Showing 1 - 10 of 248
This paper develops and estimates an unobserved components model for purposes of monetary policy analysis and inflation targeting in a small open economy. Cyclical components are modeled as a multivariate linear rational expectations model of the monetary transmission mechanism, while trend...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005412638
Upon winning the 2002 presidential elections, event that considerably increased the Brazilian country risk levels and volatility, Lula celebrated by declaring: “hope has beaten fear”. Extending Une and Portugal (2004), the aim of this paper is twofold: to empirically test the interrelations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556352
Japanese economy underwent a major structural change after the first oil-price shock. The “twin deficits” simulations consider …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556489
Este documento analiza el impacto de un shock en la tasa de interés externa en la economía chilena. Con este fin, se … empírico se concluye que la autoridad monetaria no debiese reaccionar ante un shock transitorio en la tasa de interés externa …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561346
This paper was prepared for the purpose of presenting the methodology and uses of the Monte Carlo simulation technique as applied in the evaluation of investment projects to analyse and assess risk. The first part of the paper highlights the importance of risk analysis in investment appraisal....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561672
An important factor that helps distinquish between alternative balance of payments theories is the assumed causal relationship between the domestic credit and reserve components of a country's monetary base. This paper reports test results of this causal relationship in Austrailia, Belgium,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005119426
Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system (EWS) for six countries in Asia in which indicators do work. Our binary choice model, which has been estimated for the period 1970:01–2001.12, has the following features. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005119432
Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system for six countries in Asia, in which indicators do work.We distinguish three types of financial crises, currency crises, banking crises and debt crises, and extract four groups of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005119472
This paper identifies a subset of emerging markets that have higher than average expected returns and studies risk properties of this subset by investment simulations. It is found that: (1) the portfolio of "value" emerging markets generates superior returns, and (2) statistical measures of its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125521
The study examines the reasons for financial crises in 31 emerging market countries during 1980-2001. It estimates a probit model using 23 macroeconomic and financial sector variables. Traditional variables such as unemployment and inflation, as well as several indicators of indebtedness such as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005126411