The links between commodity prices, interst rates, wages, and the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar with consumer prices is investigated. An ARIMA transfer function methodology is employed. Sample data are from January 1972 to December 1988. Although model diagnsotics are relatively good,...

We examine the impact of shocks on community outcomes. The shocks that we examine are exogenous economic shocks which occur externally to the local community, and which are hypothesised to impact on the community. By testing the impact of these shocks on community developments, we enrich...

This paper looks at the evolution of the terms of trade between commodities and manufactures in the twentieth century. A statistical analysis of the relative price series for 24 commodities and of eight indices reveals a significant deterioration in their barter terms of trade over the course of...

The purpose of this paper is to measure the short- and long-run effect ofthe price of water on residential water use. Unit root tests reveal that water use series and series of other variables affecting use are non-stationary. However, a long-run co-integrating relationship is found in the...

For many economic problems standard statistical analysis, based on the notion of stationarity, is not adequate. These include modeling seasonal decisions of consumers, forecasting business cycles and - as we show in the present article - modeling wholesale power market prices. We apply standard...

The standard Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach to investigating the underlying dynamics of economic variables assumes a constant co-integration space. This paper relaxes this assumption by implementing a regime switching VECM that allows for shifts in both the drift and the long-run...

Vector autoregressions are used to model price transmission through the coffee processing chain, from producers to the world market and from the world market to consumers. A comparison is made of price dynamics against a backdrop of two very different market structures: pre-1989, producers...

DYNAMICS OF INFLATIONARY PROCESSES IN MALAWI: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS* Kisu Simwaka Research & Statistics Department Reserve Bank of Malawi The paper investigates the sources of inflationary pressures in Malawi and suggests ways of mitigating such pressures. In the first part of the study, we...