We propose a structural credit risk model for consumer lending using option theory and the concept of the value of the consumer’s reputation. Using Brazilian empirical data and a credit bureau score as proxy for creditworthiness we compare a number of alternative models before suggesting one...

In this paper we apply a simple macro model to explore and evaluate certain optimal monetary policy rules for China's economy. To be more consistent with the central bank (the People's Bank of China)'s behaviour, we use money supply as a monetary policy instrument rather than the commonly used...

The paper discusses some of the problems of subsistence agriculture in countries in transition and proposes a methodology for analysis. It demonstrates that approaches which ignore the dualistic agriculture structure cannot provide consistent estimates of the behavioural parameters of the total...

This paper compares generalized method of moments (GMM) and simulated maximum likelihood (SML) approaches to the estimation of the panel probit model. Both techniques circumvent multiple integration of joint density functions without the need to restrict the error term variance- covariance...

This paper revisits the question if the user cost of capital plays an important role for investment decisions using Bayesian estimation techniques. These methods offer advantages over classical econometric tools in this area: The most important are that prior distributions offer a convincing way...

In contrast to a posterior analysis given a particular sampling model, posterior model probabilities in the context of model uncertainty are typically rather sensitive to the specification of the prior. In particular, "diffuse'' priors on model-specific parameters can lead to quite unexpected...

The simulation variance in the estimation of mixed logit parameters is found, in our application, to be lower with 100 Halton draws than with 1000 random draws. This finding confirms Bhat's (1999a) results and implies significant reduction in run times for mixed logit estimation. Further...

This is the FINAL draft of this paper reporting the results of a long ongoing competition. The paper now is forthcoming in the Journal of Econometrics. This final version replaces the earlier draft that was also in this archive. Interest has been growing in testing for nonlinearity or chaos in...

We develop an ordinary least squares estimator of the long memory parameter from a fractionally integrated process that is an alternative to the Geweke Porter-Hudak estimator. Using the wavelet transform from a fractionally integrated process, we establish a log-linear relationship between the...

In this paper we apply compactly supported wavelets to the ARFIMA(p,d,q) long-memory process to develop an alternative maximum likelihood estimator of the differencing parameter, d, that is invariant to the unknown mean and model specification, and to the level of contamination. We show that...