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FORECASTING SPOT ELECTRICITY PRICES WITH TIME SERIES MODELS

Weron, Rafal; Misiorek, Adam - EconWPA - 2005

In this paper we study simple time series models and assess their forecasting performance. In particular we calibrate ARMA and ARMAX (where the exogenous variable is the system load) processes. Models are tested on a time series of California power market system prices and loads from the period...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556334

Manipulated, Misled, Ignored, Abused: Residential Consumer Experience with Electric Deregulation in the United Kingdom

Jewell, Kevin - EconWPA - 2004

The United Kingdom began deregulating its electric market years before the U.S. Thus, the UK provides the best example of what can be expected in the deregulated residential retail electric market in the United States. . An extensive review of the evidence found: Questionable price savings:...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076594

Modeling Electricity Auctions

Harbord, David; Fabra, Natalia; Fehr, Nils-Henrik von der - EconWPA - 2002

The recent debates over discriminatory versus uniform-price auctions in the UK and elsewhere have revealed an incomplete understanding of the limitations of some popular auction models when applied to real-world electricity markets. This has led certain regulatory authorities to prefer...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005407509

The Fall in British Electricity Prices: Market Rules, Market Structure, or Both?

Fabra, Natalia; Toro, Juan - EconWPA - 2003

In this paper we investigate the factors contributing to the fall in the Lerner Index (price-cost margin) in the British electricity market during the 90s. A first stage of our analysis models the number of breaks in the Lerner Index and their dating as unknowns. Our results suggest the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005412900

Price Wars and Collusion in the Spanish Electricity Market

Fabra, Natalia; Toro, Juan - EconWPA - 2002

\We analyze the time-series of prices in the Spanish electricity market by means of a time varying-transition-probability Markov switching model. Accounting for changes in demand and cost conditions (which reflect changes in input costs, capacity availability and hydro power), we show that the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005412904

Competition in Electricity Spot Markets: Economic Theory and International Experience

Fehr, Nils-Henrik von der; Harbord, David - EconWPA - 2002

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005412973

Capacity Markets for Electricity

Creti, Anna; Fabra, Natalia - EconWPA - 2003

The creation of electricity markets has raised the fundamental question as to whether markets provide the right incentives for the provision of the reserves needed to maintain system reliability, or whether some form of regulation is needed. In some states in the US, electricity retailers have...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561380

Socio-economic status, sexual behavior, and differential AIDS mortality Evidence from Cˆote d’Ivoire

Grimm, Michael; Cogneau, Denis - EconWPA - 2004

Lack of knowledge about differential AIDS mortality seriously hampers the study of the economic impact of AIDS in …, therefore it can be used to forecast mortality differentials for other surveys as well. A main result of our model is that … educated people have a higher risk of dying of AIDS, because they are more likely to have several sexual partners. This effect …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076940

AIDS and income distribution in Africa. A micro-simulation study for Cˆote d’Ivoire

Grimm, Michael; Cogneau, Denis - EconWPA - 2004

We develop a demo-economic micro-simulation model able to simulate over a fifteen years period the impact of AIDS on … household and individual incomes. When focusing on the labor supply effects of over- mortality, the main effect of AIDS in Cˆote … conclusions do not seem to depend on the degree of heterogeneity and clustering of the HIV/AIDS-infections over the population. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005062767

MODELLING THE HEALTH SECTOR MODELLING THE HEALTH SECTOR:NIGERIA

NWAOBI, DR. GODWIN CHUKWUDUM - EconWPA - 2005

GOOD HEALTH IS A CRUCIAL PART OF WELL-BEING BUT SPENDING ON HEALTH CAN BE JUSTIFIED ON ECONOMIC GROUNDS. THE GOAL OF REDUCING POVERTY PROVIDES A DIFFERENT BUT EQUALLY POWERFUL CASE FOR HEALTH INVESTMENTS. HOWEVER, IF POLICYMAKERS ARE TO ACCELERATE THE SUBSTANTIAL HEALTH GAINS OF RECENT DECADES,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005408428