This paper analyses the role of inflation expectations in the euro area. On one hand, the question is how inflation expectations affect both inflation and output, and, on the other hand, how inflation expectations reflect developments in these variables. The analyses make use of a simple VAR...

This paper shows the way how persistent world inflation shocks hitting a small open economy can re-weight the importance of domestic and foreign factors in the determination of prices. In this sense, we study why the recently observed global disinflation environment may imply a weakening of the...

This paper considers a sticky price model with a cash-in-advance constraint where agents forecast inflation rates with the help of econometric models. Agents use least squares learning to estimate two competing models of which one is consistent with rational expectations once learning is...

Using a recently introduced nonparametric test, I investigate two important and distinct asymmetries in cross-country quarterly macroeconomic time series. Asymmetries are suggested by many theories (old and new), and those discovered aid in the selection of the appropriate nonlinear time series...

This paper investigates the asymmetric effects of monetary shocks when the=20 impact of monetary policy on real activity works through state-dependent=20 variables. We use a nonlinear model, the multiple regime smooth transition=20 autoregressive model, that allows the effects of shocks to vary...

New Keynesian models of the business cycle have become the new paradigm of monetary economics, often used for policy analysis. This paper shows that this class of models fail in one crucial respect: they imply a strong negative contemporaneous correlation between inflation and output....

This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic policy shocks in a Real- Business-Cycle Model with money. In addition to technology shocks, I include government consumption, government investment, tax rate and monetary policy as sources of random disturbances. Money is introduced in a...

Modern monetary policy analysis is built around the concept of an interest rate rule that responds to both inflation and output. This paper evaluates the quantitative implications of having a policy rule target different definitions of the output gap in a New Keynesian model with endogenous...

This paper assesses empirically the two main alternative specifications of the output gap-based Phillips relation for the euro area: the older expectations-augmented Phillips curve and the new Keynesian Phillips curve. The main focus is on the role of expectations and comparison of the two...

In this paper we establish a link between the volatility of oil price shocks and a positive expected value of inflation in equilibrium (inflation premium). In doing so, we implement the perturbation method to solve up to second order a benchmark New Keynesian model with oil price shocks. In...