A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference series. (2) The relation between the reference series and the indicator should be statistically significant and stable over time....

Most studies that emphasize and encourage the shift towards a less regulated and financially open system rest on the premise of a prosperous growth prospect. Accordingly, interests have focused on growth models as a framework to understand and to analyze the effects of economic freedom. In this...

Several recent papers conclude that U.S. real GDP is trend stationary, implying that all shocks are transitory and long run path is deterministic. These inferences fail to take into account two problems: the distortion of test size in finite samples due to data-based model selection, and the...

Empirically R&D expenditure moves pro-cyclically, but the pro- cyclicality is a puzzle from the Schumpeterian point of view. The paper examines the cyclical property of R&D expenditure in the context of endogenous growth, and concludes that (i) substitutability between investing in physical...

The hypothesis that the behavior of firms in adjusting the number of their employees along a business cycle depends on the size of the firms has often been mentioned in the literature. Several authors argue that small and medium sized enterprises are more hesitant in hiring additional employees...

This paper introduces an upgraded version of MSVARlib, a Gauss and Ox- Gauss compliant library, focusing on Multivariate Markov Switching Regressions in their most general specification. This new set of procedures allows to estimate, through classical optimization methods, models belonging to...

This study addresses the effects of macroeconomic conditions on the labour market outcomes of immigrants. It simultaneously identifies the separate effects of macro conditions at the time of entry to the labour market and at the time of the survey, while allowing for cohort effects. Also, for...

This study addresses the effects of macroeconomic conditions on the labour market outcomes of immigrants. It simultaneously identifies the separate effects of macro conditions at the time of entry to the labour market and at the time of the survey, while allowing for cohort effects. Also, for...

The introduction of a common monetary policy in eleven European countries increased the need for leading indicators for that area. A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference...