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APPLICATION OF GARCH MODELS IN FORECASTING THE VOLATILITY OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES

Guida, Tony; Matringe, Olivier - EconWPA - 2005

This paper examines the forecasting performance of GARCH’s models used with agricultural commodities data. We compare different possible sources of forecasting improvement, using various statistical distributions and models. We have chosen to confine our analysis on four indices which are the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005134650

Empirical and Theoretical Status of Discrete Scale Invariance in Financial Crashes

Johansen, Anders; Sornette, Didier; Ledoit, Olivier - EconWPA - 1999

We present a synthesis of all the available empirical evidence in the light of recent theoretical developments for the existence of characteristic log-periodic signatures of growing bubbles in a variety of markets including 8 unrelated crashes from 1929 to 1998 on stock markets as diverse as the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005413085

Measuring Loss Potential of Hedge Fund Strategies

Prado, Marcos Mailoc López de; Peijan, Achim - EconWPA - 2005

We measure the loss potential of Hedge Funds by combining three market risk measures: VaR, Draw-Down and Time Under-The-Water. Calculations are carried out considering three different frameworks regarding Hedge Fund returns: i) Normality and time-independence, ii) Non-normality and time-...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005134729

An Analysis of Hedge Fund Performance

Capocci, Daniel - EconWPA - 2002

Using one of the greatest hedge fund database ever used (2796 hedge funds including 801 dissolved), we investigate hedge funds performance using various asset-pricing models, including an extension form of Carhart's (1997) model combined with Fama & French (1998) Agarwal & Naik (2000) models and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005134782

Persistence Characteristics of the Chinese Stock Markets

Los, Cornelis A.; Yu, Bing - EconWPA - 2005

This paper identifies such fundamental characteristics as the lack of ergodicity, stationarity, and independence, and it identifies the degree of initial persistence of the Chinese stock markets when they were more regulated. The index series are from the Shanghai (SHI) stock market and Shenzhen...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561572

Do Chinese stock markets share common information arrival processes?

Kostov, Philip; Wu, Ziping; McErlean, Seamus - EconWPA - 2004

According to the Mixture of Distributions Hypothesis (MDH), returns volatility and trading volume are driven by a …) volatility and trading volume changes in different financial markets. An implication is that returns volatility in one stock … market should show positive and contemporaneous correlation with returns volatility in another stock market. This paper tests …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005407887

Forecasting Volatility of Turkish Markets: A Comparison of Thin and Thick Models

Kilic, Ekrem - EconWPA - 2005

Volatility of financial markets is an important topic for academics, policy makers and market participants. In this … these specifications. Then assuming that the squared returns are the benchmark estimate for actual volatility of the day, I … compare all of the models with respect to how much efficient they are to mimic the realized volatility. At the same time I …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556286

A NEW METHOD FOR ESTIMATING THE ORDER OF INTEGRATION OF FRACTIONALLY INTEGRATED PROCESSES USING BISPECTRA

Dalkir, Mehmet - EconWPA - 2005

The method proposed in this chapter is making use of the bispectrum transformation to estimate the level of integration of a fractionally integrated time series. Bispectrum ransformation transforms the series into a two dimensional frequency space, and thus has higher information content...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005407981

Grocer 1.0, an Econometric Toolbox for Scilab: an Econometrician Point of View

Dubois - EconWPA - 2005

available. Grocer contains also two original econometric tools: a function allowing the 'automatic' estimation of the 'true …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556304

STOCK MARKET VALUATION IN THE UNITED STATES

BISCIARI, Patrick; DURRE, Alain; NYSSENS, Alain - EconWPA - 2003

This paper gives an overview of some issues related to market aluation, focusing on the developments on the New York equity markets. The 42.4 p.c. fall in the S&P 500 price index between 24 March 2000 - when it reached its all-time high - and 31 December 2002 is situated in a very long term...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125064

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