OIL AS AN ENERGY PROPELLER, IS THE LARGEST INTERNATIONALLY TRADED COMMODITY THAT SHOWS HIGHLY VISIBLE INTERPLAY OF POLITICS AND ECONOMICS IN THE DETERMINATION OF ITS INVESTMENT, PRODUCTION, TRADE AND PRICING POLICIES. THIS UNIQUENESS, NO DOUBT DEMANDS A WELL ARTICULATED OIL POLICY FOR AN OIL...

In this paper we propose a jump diffusion type model which recovers the main characteristics of electricity spot price dynamics, including seasonality, mean reversion, and spiky behavior. Calibration of the market price of risk allows for pricing of Asian-type options written on the spot...

This paper describes an application of conjoint analysis. The subject of the valuation study is the IJmeer nature reserve, which will be partly destroyed when the new residential area IJburg is built. This paper addresses the following question: ‘What is the extent of the loss of green and...

In this paper the overall diseconomies experienced beyond certain production unit scale thresholds are investigated. These are due to several costs, including those relating to the consumption of non- renewable resources, which firms have generally not internalised, to the extent that they can...

COAL WAS DISCOVERED IN NIGERIA IN 1909 AND COAL MINING STARTED WITH A DRIFT MINE AT OGBETE, ENUGU IN 1915. SINCE 1958/59, WHEN COAL PRODUCTION REACHED ITS PEAK, THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FLUCTUATION IN THE AMOUNT OF COAL PRODUCED IN SUBSEQUENT YEARS. THIS PAPER THEREFORE INVESTIGATES THE MAJOR...

We give the reader a tour of good energy optimization models that explicitly deal with uncertainty. The uncertainty usually stems from unpredictability of demand and/or prices of energy, or from resource availability and prices. Since most energy investments or operations involve irreversible...

For many economic problems standard statistical analysis, based on the notion of stationarity, is not adequate. These include modeling seasonal decisions of consumers, forecasting business cycles and - as we show in the present article - modeling wholesale power market prices. We apply standard...

In this paper we study simple time series models and assess their forecasting performance. In particular we calibrate ARMA and ARMAX (where the exogenous variable is the system load) processes. Models are tested on a time series of California power market system prices and loads from the period...

The value of a gas fired power depends on the spark spread, defined as the difference between the price of electricity and the cost of gas used for the generation of electricity. We model the spark spread using a two-factor model, allowing mean-reversion in short-term variations and uncertainty...

We address the issue of modeling spot electricity prices with regime switching models. After reviewing the stylized facts about power markets we propose and fit various models to spot prices from the Nordic power exchange. Afterwards we assess their performance by comparing simulated and market...